TG4's Sligo/Leitrim Poll "Fundamentally Flawed"

[kerrynorth]

I gave this a separate thread as I thought it might otherwise not get the attention it deserves:

According to Marian Harkin in last Sunday's Tribune (p.4) the recent TG4 poll was the "sloppiest work I've ever seen". She said that the anaysis was "fundamentally flawed" and called into question all the recent TG4 polls. She pointed out that in their distribution of Perry's and Devins's surplus the poll distributed the entire vote rather than just the small slice of the vote that is over the quota and would be available for distribution. She reckoned that the poll was out by 50% amd "casts doubt on the method of interpretation of polls conducted on behalf of TG4" by TNS/MRBI.

TG4 have said that they are not conducting any further polls. The MD of TNS/MRBI appears to admit there may have been a problem with the polls and that Harkin was correct in questioning their interpretation. The problem arose with the distribution of the surplus in a constituency poll which could not be done with such a small sample size.


Taken with the questioning of the Kerry South TG4 poll on the sampling area and methodology it looks as if we were on the money in pointing out some glaring errors in the conducting and interpretation of that poll. I am going to email Shane Coleman at the Trib to alert him to the Kerry South poll deficenices we identified on this site, he may follow up?

[rover]

i have said about all of the polls that there was something fishy about them......namely that they seem to MASSIVELY overstate the support of sitting tds

on the discussion of the kerry south poll we managed to uncover a glaring error made in the sampling which gave undue weight to one of the electoral areas

on the clare one they heaped the ennis and shannon areas together