TNS/MRBI poll for Sligo/North Leitrim - 10/12/06

[Cashel Hill]

TG4's next constituency poll this Sunday is for Sligo/North Leitrim. Any views on how this might pan out? It's a three-seater now with the splitting of Leitrim. Still no word from Marian Harkin as to whether she is in or out of the race, but I'd imagine she would be included, a poor showing might help her decide. The other two TD's, Jimmy Devins (FF) and John Perry (FG), are going again, with Sen. Eamon Scanlon (FF) the leading challenger.

For FG, Imelda Henry will have the task of regaining Ted Nealon's vote in Sligo town and surrounds, which has halved since the mid-80's (11.2% in 2002, 24% in '87). Michael Comiskey is the third FG runner, and the only Leitrim-based candidate so far. So uneven is the split that it would take every single vote in North Leitrim to go to Comiskey, and even then he would do well to win. Sean MacManus is the SF standard-bearer once more, and would hope to improve on 2002, but the loss of the SF core vote in South Leitrim will hamper him. FG-turned-Labour Cllr. Jim McGarry will be the Labour runner, but wouldn't be a serious contender IMO. Whether Declan Bree will follow the hissy-fit of his sister-in-law in Galway remains to be seen. If so what left-wing vote there is split three ways.

Prediction - Perry to hold on, possibly as poll-topper, with Devins to hold also, and Harkin should show well in this poll, if she does pull out though it's Scanlon's seat to lose.

FWIW the TG4 poll in 2002 got it wrong here, giving FG 2 of the 4 seats (Perry and Reynolds), a local newspaper poll called it right though. Also taking into account the loss of the South Leitrim votes, then the adjusted tally figures from 2002 were; Harkin (IND) 7748, Perry (FG) 6708, Scanlon (FF) 6178, Devins (FF) 6130, MacManus (SF) 3587, Bree (Lab) 2281, Reynolds* (FG) 2232, Ellis* (FF) 1810, Others 711. (* - South Leitrim)

[Gerrry]

I think you are right. Perry, Devins and Harkin to win. If Harkin doesnt run fairly certain it should be Scanlon but Mac Manus would be an outside bet but unlikely.

[FutureTaoiseach]

I hope she does run as I would doubt she would support a Rainbow govt and she is in the Liberal group in the European Parliament as are the PDs which is a good sign. :wink:

[hiding behind a poster]

I can't see why Harkin would run. The money in Brussels is far better, and there's no guarantee that she'd either hold her seat or have any say in government-forming post-election. And she strikes me as a fairly principle-free zone, so its hard to think of anything bar the standard "neglect by Dublin of the downtrodden people of (insert constituency name)" being her selling point. I'd tip her to stay in Europe.

[Gerrry]

I can't see why Harkin would run. The money in Brussels is far better, and there's no guarantee that she'd either hold her seat or have any say in government-forming post-election. And she strikes me as a fairly principle-free zone, so its hard to think of anything bar the standard "neglect by Dublin of the downtrodden people of (insert constituency name)" being her selling point. I'd tip her to stay in Europe.

No, she'll have no problem holding her seat if she runs. You are right though about her being a "fairly principle-free zone" and whatever decision she takes will be based on what she thinks is best for her long term career (as she is entitled to do).

[Salthill]

Why in God's name are FG running 3 here? A well balanced ticket could have given them a chance if they have a good day and the anti-Gov transfers are tight. As it is, the final seat could go anywhere if Harkin stays in the EP.

Is this on Flannery's list?

[Gerrry]

Why in God's name are FG running 3 here? A well balanced ticket could have given them a chance if they have a good day and the anti-Gov transfers are tight. As it is, the final seat could go anywhere if Harkin stays in the EP.

Is this on Flannery's list?

FG havent a hope of two here whether Harkin runs or not.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Why in God's name are FG running 3 here? A well balanced ticket could have given them a chance if they have a good day and the anti-Gov transfers are tight. As it is, the final seat could go anywhere if Harkin stays in the EP.

Is this on Flannery's list?

They are running 3 here to prevent civil-war in the constituency as in the 4 candidate-strategy in Clare.

[kerrynorth]

Why in God's name are FG running 3 here? A well balanced ticket could have given them a chance if they have a good day and the anti-Gov transfers are tight. As it is, the final seat could go anywhere if Harkin stays in the EP.

Is this on Flannery's list?

FG havent a hope of two here whether Harkin runs or not.

She was on Vincent Browne last night. Without actually giving a straight answer I took from her response that she was giving every indication that she WOULD NOT be running. She was saying how much she loved europe blah, blah, but not a word about the Dail! I got distinct impression from what she was saying that she is not running. She said she will be making an announcement very shortly, which I would take to mean in the next couple of weeks.

[Gerrry]

Why in God's name are FG running 3 here? A well balanced ticket could have given them a chance if they have a good day and the anti-Gov transfers are tight. As it is, the final seat could go anywhere if Harkin stays in the EP.

Is this on Flannery's list?

FG havent a hope of two here whether Harkin runs or not.

She was on Vincent Browne last night. Without actually giving a straight answer I took from her response that she was giving every indication that she WOULD NOT be running. She was saying how much she loved europe blah, blah, but not a word about the Dail! I got distinct impression from what she was saying that she is not running. She said she will be making an announcement very shortly, which I would take to mean in the next couple of weeks.

In which case it will be Perry, Devins and Scanlon with an outside possibility on a very good day of MacManus at Scanlons expense.