Fine Gael vote in Cavan 2007

[Casualbets]

The above is a map of Fine Gael's support in Cavan in the last general election. What particularly interests me is that Fine Gael seem to have two geographically distinct areas of dominant support (where they out-polled FF; see map below), the main one being in O'Reilly's base in East Cavan, and the second smaller one between Arva and Killeshandra in the Belturbet area.



What makes that second support base even more interesting is that the rise in the Fine Gael vote seems to be an increase in Seymour Crawford's vote (average of 8% across Cavan) to the low to high teens in the ten or so boxes concerned - and in one box (Derrylane) Crawford polled 64 of the 145 votes (45%), with O'Reilly polling 36 votes with the FF candidates only polling 28 between them...



Now it's possible the tallies I have have an error in them, but nearby boxes in Arva and Killeshandra also show Fine Gael votes well in excess of 40%... can someone explain the groundswell of support for FG and in particular Crawford here?

NB The relationship of boxes to DEDs is speculative a few cases... if anyone could locate a list of the boxes/DEDs in Cav/Mon in 2007 in either digital/paper format twould be much appreciated...

[Cashel Hill]

Now it's possible the tallies I have have an error in them, but nearby boxes in Arva and Killeshandra also show Fine Gael votes well in excess of 40%... can someone explain the groundswell of support for FG and in particular Crawford here?

It's quite likely down to the very question you posed re FG in Leinster last week, Crawford is a Presbyterian after all, and there would be a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan. Aside from that, he was very involved in farming matters in the region before becoming a TD IIRC. There's also a large FG vote in the area bordering Arva on the Leitrim side, Newtowngore, Carrigallen etc.

[Observer]

What makes that second support base even more interesting is that the rise in the Fine Gael vote seems to be an increase in Seymour Crawford's vote (average of 8% across Cavan) to the low to high teens in the ten or so boxes concerned - and in one box (Derrylane) Crawford polled 64 of the 145 votes (45%), with O'Reilly polling 36 votes with the FF candidates only polling 28 between them...

Short answer: Derrylane is very Protestant.

[Casualbets]

There's also a large FG vote in the area bordering Arva on the Leitrim side, Newtowngore, Carrigallen etc.

I knocked up a map and it seems your assertion is correct - despite not having a South Leitrim candidate FG polled around 40% in that area, and it's pretty much contiguous with the area under discussion in Cavan...

I wonder was this FG support inherited from the Clann Na Talmhan days?

[Cashel Hill]

There's also a large FG vote in the area bordering Arva on the Leitrim side, Newtowngore, Carrigallen etc.

I knocked up a map and it seems your assertion is correct - despite not having a South Leitrim candidate FG polled around 40% in that area, and it's pretty much contiguous with the area under discussion in Cavan...

I wonder was this FG support inherited from the Clann Na Talmhan days?

Well I don't know about that, but it's the McCartins' base, and whether it was there before they came along I do not know. That would also be the case in Ballinamore, the long-standing Reynolds territory (as well as SF/McGirl's too).

[Casualbets]

I just checked the Census figures... Derrylane is indeed over 50% non-catholic... and Newtowngore in Leitrim is around 35% non-catholic... fascinating...

[hiding behind a poster]

Now it's possible the tallies I have have an error in them, but nearby boxes in Arva and Killeshandra also show Fine Gael votes well in excess of 40%... can someone explain the groundswell of support for FG and in particular Crawford here?

It's quite likely down to the very question you posed re FG in Leinster last week, Crawford is a Presbyterian after all, and there would be a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan. Aside from that, he was very involved in farming matters in the region before becoming a TD IIRC. There's also a large FG vote in the area bordering Arva on the Leitrim side, Newtowngore, Carrigallen etc.

There was also the fact that many FG people in those areas would have been unhappy that O'Reilly got on the ticket ahead of Cllr Madeleine Argue (from the O'Brien family), and they may have given Crawford their No.1's as a result.

[Observer]

[quote=hiding behind a poster]

Now it's possible the tallies I have have an error in them, but nearby boxes in Arva and Killeshandra also show Fine Gael votes well in excess of 40%... can someone explain the groundswell of support for FG and in particular Crawford here?

It's quite likely down to the very question you posed re FG in Leinster last week, Crawford is a Presbyterian after all, and there would be a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan. Aside from that, he was very involved in farming matters in the region before becoming a TD IIRC. There's also a large FG vote in the area bordering Arva on the Leitrim side, Newtowngore, Carrigallen etc.

There was also the fact that many FG people in those areas would have been unhappy that O'Reilly got on the ticket ahead of Cllr Madeleine Argue (from the O'Brien family), and they may have given Crawford their No.1's as a result.[/quote:3b1fljhf]

If that was the explanation, hbap, then there would have been a much higher vote for Crawford around Cavan town itself. But looking at the map for the parts of Cavan I'm familiar with (south-west), the high Crawford votes correspond pretty closely with the areas with a high concentration of Protestants - Derrylane being the highest, but in general the area from north of Arva up to Killeshandra and Kilmore, Crossdoney, Drumaloor, Cloverhill. The green spot at the bottom of the map is Ballymachugh, which again would have a higher Protestant population than the surrounding areas.



Newtowngore, incidentally, has the only current Orange Lodge in County Leitrim (Portlongfield).

[Stíofán]

If that was the explanation, hbap, then there would have been a much higher vote for Crawford around Cavan town itself.

Surely the reason for a low FG vote in Cavan town is the dominance of Minister Brendan Smith?

[FutureTaoiseach]

The county is 8.265% Protestant so it seems reasonable to assume it and the 7.98% in Monaghan are a big chunk of Crawford's vote.