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  1. #421
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by simplesimon View Post
    Jeez. You are really down on her, arent you? what do you mean that she wrote some articles for him as part of her graduation thesis?

    Heather Humphreys is Seymour Crawford's apprentice and look where she is... she will walk the election. But not just because she was ordained as his successor but because she also has experience.

    What do you look for in candidates?

    What I look for in candidates is integrity and not flip-flopping on issues.

    Lets get some facts right first, Seymour Crawford has retired and being the only standing FG Protestant TD for many years, he has now been replaced by Heather Humphries, who also happens to be a Protestant. Not that this matters much to me on preference but some folks in Cavan/Monaghan do apparently hold their religious beliefs as a reason to vote for someone of the same persuasion.

    Lets not forget that Brendan Smith was assistant to John Wilson a FF minister and suceeded him upon retirement. Wilson was probably one of the most loyal FF ministers ever to set foot in the Dial, so Smith had no problem following in his wake. Smith however is low calibre in my estimation and sinking fast.

    So where does that place Kathryn Reilly?
    I have already given my two penny worth, so I won't bore you all further.
    Last edited by Observer2; 20th February 2011 at 09:40 PM.
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  2. #422
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by taighde View Post
    Hey folks, do we want this thread to include honest analysis of what we think is likely to happen or simply become a platform for espousing our own preferences? I think that we have a really interesting contest on many levels and we should focus on that rather than getting sidetracked into personal point scoring or dealing with what's likely to happen in Louth or anywhere else.
    So here's my genuine assessment of what's going on in the Monaghan end of the contituency as of today. Ó Caoláin is very strong and even with the loss of the Cavan vote he will possibly be elected on the first count. [Incidentally, SF activists say they are reasonably confident of 6,500 votes minimum in Cavan for Kathryn Reilly ... which I don't think will be enough, but the addition of up to 1,000 votes from Monaghan will greatly strengthen her cause.]
    Seán Conlan (FG) is definitely going to take a large chunk of Margaret Conlon's (FF) vote in the mid Monaghan area and he may actually be ahead of Heather Humphreys on first preferences as he is also taking votes in the Clones area (largely because he is the son of the late John F. Conlan TD who had a large following in this part of the county). I agree, however, that Heather's Cavan vote and the political Protestant vote may compensate for the loss of first preferences to her running mate in Monaghan. This competition is likely to maximise the vote for both candidates, which is exactly what Fine Gael are hoping for. They will be in the hunt for the final seat, but it will all come down to how the votes are spread between the strongest three candidates who I assume are Conlan, Humphreys and O'Reilly. I admit knowing nothing about McVitty and his likely support, but I do know that west Cavan has a relatively small population as against other parts of the constituency.
    The Fianna Fáil campaign is in disarray. There are areas of the county where there is no canvassing or postering and Fianna Fáil activists were telling me today that they expect her to lose. More than that, they suggest that many FF activists won't be sorry if this happens, especially in the Latton area where there is a feeling that FF Councillor, Séamus Coyle was hard done by in not being allowed to go forward for the seat and that Margaret Conlan blocked him. Whether this allegation has any basis in fact, I do not know, but Séamus Coyle definitely was interested in a nomination. I am told that while canvassing in Clones the other day, Margaret sat in her car while two canvassers knocked on doors. It must be tough and demoralising!
    I am hearing no talk about any of the independents, bar Caroline forde who may take some votes in monaghan, but nothing substantial. I think that Séamus Treanor's campaign started quite strongly in Monaghan town, but has gone backwards in recent weeks. As for the Labour and Green candidates, no doubt there will be votes for both of them, but I haven't encountered any of them.
    Thanks taighde, I will reflect back on your appraisal next week when the election is over. It will certainly be interresting to see which FG candidates come out best. In Cavan we have no doubt that it will be senator Joe O'Reilly, having been waiting a long time in the shadows. The folks around Bailieboro particularly will be glad to see their man get elected. Good luck to him and his election team, some of which we know very well.
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  3. #423
    delaad delaad is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Observer2 View Post
    Apologies, I should have used the term 'low calibre' in comparing Brendan with his predesessor. However I still hold the view that he has delivered very little for Cavan/Monaghan during his period in office. He failed to follow up on getting the IDA to bring industry after Terydine changed their mind about coming to Cavan. He led us up the garden path over the proposed Regional Hospital and now it looks like Coillte might be sold off and the Quinn empire collapsing. For a man that loves to get his picture in the newspapers, we see that Brendan Smith has done little of substance.
    No need to apologise; understand where you are coming from. Would be hard to match Johnny Wilson's performance at any event.

    However, given that Quinn still exists at least til after the election; Cavan Institute has been over-applied 100% 2 years running; and Cavan people are innately enterprising anyway,what do you reckon is the best return of deputies to maximise the potential of the area, given that neither Cavan (nor Monaghan) is liable to have a Cabinet rep in the new govt.
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  4. #424
    Drumlin1 Drumlin1 is offline

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    Some interessting points, however I would say that the reason that Joe O'Reilly didn't get elected last time was because of his miss-handling of the campaign for Virginia Regional Hospital in the lead up to the 2007 election, he stabbed his fellow Virginia FG people in the back and lost votes in east Cavan by the smallest of margins. Much to the advantage of Smith who promised the sun, moon and stars but didn't deliver in the end (as usual). O'Reilly's fpv were higher than that of Margaret Conlon.
    The reason Joe O'Reilly didn't get elected, pure and simple, is that FG ran one too many candidates. He was the highest-polling candidate in the country who didn't get in.

    Internal bickering meant they ended up running Paddy Reilly and screwing Joe, Andy Boylan and Paddy in the process.
    Same mistake could happen this time.
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  5. #425
    myk myk is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumlin1 View Post
    The reason Joe O'Reilly didn't get elected, pure and simple, is that FG ran one too many candidates. He was the highest-polling candidate in the country who didn't get in.

    Internal bickering meant they ended up running Paddy Reilly and screwing Joe, Andy Boylan and Paddy in the process.
    Same mistake could happen this time.
    There were two FG candidates only in 2007; Seymour Crawford and Joe O'Reilly!


    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes
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  6. #426
    taighde taighde is offline

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    That's true. What scuppered Joe's chances last time out was the discipline of the Fiana Fáil vote across the county line. Fine Gael hasn't had such a disciplined vote in recent elections and the big question this coming Friday is whether voters who give Seán Conlan (for example) their no. 1 preference will continue 2,3,4 for the others so that the vote is kept within the party. I think that this will be very difficult for them to achieve and it may expose the weakness of a 4-candidate strategy, as opposed to running three whch was the preferred option of some within the local party, including Heather Humphreys.
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  7. #427
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumlin1 View Post
    The reason Joe O'Reilly didn't get elected, pure and simple, is that FG ran one too many candidates. He was the highest-polling candidate in the country who didn't get in.

    Internal bickering meant they ended up running Paddy Reilly and screwing Joe, Andy Boylan and Paddy in the process.
    Same mistake could happen this time.
    I think that you are referring to an earlier general election. In 2007 it was just Seymour Crawford and Joe O'Reilly that ran for FG in Cavan/Monaghan. I know that there was no love lost between Joe and Paddy and it was Paddy who was campigning for the regional hospital in Virginia during the lead up to the general election. This we feel is what turned the Virginia people against Joe and consequently lost him votes. Its an interesting story that would make a facinating book if anyone had been following the hospitals issue. Brendan Smith played a smart (cute whore) move by giving support to Paddy's campaign and brought all of the Cavan FF councillors along with him including Kingscourts Clifford Kelly. FG however were spllit on the hospital issue, Andrew Boylan and Sean McKiernan stood out against the Virginia regional hospital campaign. Boylan particularly felt that this could jepodize the existingCavan hospital long term, but McKiernan in Bailieboro would have been justified in supporting his neighbour but didn't do so. As it turned out eventually, the whole regional hospital campaign was scrapped because of lack of money, Dermot Ahern's famous statement, "there isn't a red penny for a regional hospital", begs the question, did Smith, Dempsey & Ahern know this all along and were winding everyone up just to get votes. I would be inclined to think that this was very likely, particularly as the three amigo's were paddling the same canoe throughout the most recent Cowen/IMF debarcle.
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  8. #428
    Tough Paddy Tough Paddy is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Observer2 View Post
    What I look for in candidates is integrity and not flip-flopping on issues.
    Lets get some facts right first, Seymour Crawford has retired and being the only standing FG Protestant TD for many years, he has now been replaced by Heather Humphries, who also happens to be a Protestant. Not that this matters much to me on preference but some folks in Cavan/Monaghan do apparently hold their religious beliefs as a reason to vote for someone of the same persuasion.

    Lets not forget that Brendan Smith was assistant to John Wilson a FF minister and suceeded him upon retirement. Wilson was probably one of the most loyal FF ministers ever to set foot in the Dial, so Smith had no problem following in his wake. Smith however is low calibre in my estimation and sinking fast.

    So where does that place Kathryn Reilly?
    I have already given my two penny worth, so I won't bore you all further.
    You've spent the majority of your time in this thread throwing personal insults out against candudates who have the courage of their convictions to put themselves before the electorate. Do you care to now go one step further and recommend what party or who people should vote for in this election? You've had no problem in telling us the ills of various candidates, so surely you can now elighten us all as to how everyone should vote.
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  9. #429
    On_The_Far_Right On_The_Far_Right is offline
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    Observer2 is a FG supporter clearly, but one of the "stock" that is high and mighty and puts regular voters off FG because they think they are someboby!!

    Observer2 is one of these "holier than thou" people who looks down on us mere voters and I for one, while supporting FG and knowing Joe OReilly well, take no comfort in Observer2 promoting the FG cause!

    Im a critical observer of FG and feel quite often they dont go far enough with their reforms and radical agenda. However, Id like to think I will always gove credit where credit is due to other candidates from other partys such as Katherine Reilly - because without all shades of opinion and policy, our democracy would not work, plain and simple!
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  10. #430
    vanbasten84 vanbasten84 is offline

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    Caroline Forde 40s into 5s with Paddy Power.2s with Boyles.

    Whats going on people?
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