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  1. #331
    On_The_Far_Right On_The_Far_Right is offline
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    We were canvassed at home here for first time in this election and it was Katherine Reillys campaign. Now Id live in the Ballyjamesduff district, but in a Virginia Parish, but seems they are starting to love out of the towns and villages and pick off other areas now too.
    Initially I was cautious as I didnt recognise car or occupants, but they were poliite, if a little casually dressed. Told them my votes were committed and they thanked me and moved on.
    No one yet from FG FF Lab Green Indo ......... but early days!
    Posters are very few and far between along N3 Virginia Cavan and also sparce enough in Virginia and Ballyjamesduff villages.
    I just sense (not being too involved in this election for health reasons) this campaign is being fought in media rather on doorsteps!!
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  2. #332
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by On_The_Far_Right View Post
    We were canvassed at home here for first time in this election and it was Katherine Reillys campaign. Now Id live in the Ballyjamesduff district, but in a Virginia Parish, but seems they are starting to love out of the towns and villages and pick off other areas now too.
    Initially I was cautious as I didnt recognise car or occupants, but they were poliite, if a little casually dressed. Told them my votes were committed and they thanked me and moved on.
    No one yet from FG FF Lab Green Indo ......... but early days!
    Posters are very few and far between along N3 Virginia Cavan and also sparce enough in Virginia and Ballyjamesduff villages.
    I just sense (not being too involved in this election for health reasons) this campaign is being fought in media rather on doorsteps!!
    It must be for health reasons that posters seem to be disapearing around Virginia also, whats going on?
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  3. #333
    gerrymac gerrymac is offline
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    Cavan transfer

    Quote Originally Posted by taighde View Post
    I agree that it would be folly to rule out either Katryn Reilly or a third Fine Gal candidate or, dare I say it, the second Fianna Fáil seat. I feel that the last possibility is least likely as I still see no sign of a stomach by Fianna Fáil to seriously contest this election, at least not in my area! For Kathryn Reilly to be confident of success, she will need 8,000 first preferences, but she will still be in with an excellent chance if she has about 7,000 first preferences. Any less than that and a Fine Gael third seat has to become a real possibility, depending on how their transfer strategy works for them (1, 2, 3, 4 is possible from committed party supporters, but is far less likely from non-party voters). A risky strategy, as drumlin utopian says, but I think they can be absolutely certain of Humphreys and O'Reilly, so it's probably a risk worth taking. Still, the second Sinn Féin seat has to be the most likely scenario if Reilly reaches 7,000! Does Sinn Féin in Cavan think that this is a realistic target?
    The Cavan SF vote is 4-5 thousand,but with FF in free fall this will increase,by now much is yet to be seen.I wouldnt worry that much if Katryn Reilly polled less than 7000 first preferences in Cavan,as both Hogan and Forde will poll well,but will then transfer strongly to SF,to bring her across the line.
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  4. #334
    Analyzer Analyzer is offline
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    First past the post will be Sleeveen. Basically he has distributed enough money from the central system to various people for various grants and social welfare programs, that Sleeveen will get it first time. SF 2 will get transfers, but that will be the end of the transfers. And along border areas, people will vote for SF purely out of habit from previous years.

    Then two FGs. This is part of the broader mainstream swing towards FG, and will be strongest in E Cavan, and South Monaghan.

    Then there will be a battle for seat number 4. Probably FF. Bear in mind that FF got a reasonable vote in last years Euro election, for a candidate that has been asleep since he went back to Brussels.

    Last seat - well I reckon that it will go to an Independent. Independents are at 16% nationally, and there is a tradition in some parts of the constituency to vote for Independents. Basically, independents will transfer to independents.
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  5. #335
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by gerrymac View Post
    The Cavan SF vote is 4-5 thousand,but with FF in free fall this will increase,by now much is yet to be seen.I wouldnt worry that much if Katryn Reilly polled less than 7000 first preferences in Cavan,as both Hogan and Forde will poll well,but will then transfer strongly to SF,to bring her across the line.
    You seem to be basing your assumptions on O'Caolains fpv support from Cavan last time around. Thirteen thousand votes between the two counties will not bring in two candidates. Estimate another seven thousand votes from transfers may not be enough either.
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  6. #336
    stalins granny stalins granny is offline

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    i think the entry of the various independents has made it more of a lottery as the order of their elimination will determine the last two seats.
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  7. #337
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalins granny View Post
    i think the entry of the various independents has made it more of a lottery as the order of their elimination will determine the last two seats.
    I would agree with that statement. It could be a bridge to far for SF, going south in the latest polls, that could see fellow socialists labour or an independent romp home instead.
    Last edited by Observer2; 15th February 2011 at 10:33 PM.
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  8. #338
    On_The_Far_Right On_The_Far_Right is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Observer2 View Post
    It must be for health reasons that posters seem to be disapearing around Virginia also, whats going on?
    I noticed that too! There were a lot more posters last week than there are today! I know the wind has been strong a few days, but surely teams should be out repostering and salvaging what they can and tacking them onto pallets if they cant be rehung.

    This election is very fluid and the last seat in Cavan Monaghan is going to depend on the order of eliminations from the lower candidates.

    CoC is very strong and he is expected to top the poll. Cllr Humphreys and Senator OReilly are looking strong and on course to take a seat. But the big question marks, and without local polling to shed some light on it, is how well or poorly FF are doing and all the other candidates. That leaves the 4th & 5th seats between 2 other FG, 1 SF, 2 FF and handful of Indos/Green.

    Im still going to punt on FG taking 3, but at the expense of FF getting any. SF to take 2. FF will be transfer repellent. If FF are polling 12% nationally, they will implode in Cavan Monaghan in favour of SF.

    Its a right old mess really!!
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  9. #339
    huyacodn huyacodn is offline

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    Independants in C/M

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
    Last seat - well I reckon that it will go to an Independent. Independents are at 16% nationally, and there is a tradition in some parts of the constituency to vote for Independents. Basically, independents will transfer to independents.
    Yes we all remember how effective the last independant TD elected in C/M was in 2002. Fooled the people about saving the hospital. Totally useless and waste of a good vote. First act in the Dail was voting in favour of Bertie as taoiseach
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  10. #340
    On_The_Far_Right On_The_Far_Right is offline
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    Indos could start to feel the squeeze the more this looks like a "landslide" election. There are likely to be instances where people will want to back "known" winning candidates so they can share in the feel good factor, so may decide to vote FG or Labour of SF even to kick FF further into the ground. If they feel a vote for an Indo could allow a FF candidate to sneak in ahead of another opposition party, people maybe inclined to "lend" their vote to the likely candidate to defeat an FF candidate.

    It would seem on 12% FF are fairly toxic. How much so in transfers remains to be seen, but these opinion polls, accompanied with cavnass returns from all partys, show FF are imploding all over the place.

    There are several credible Indos in Cavan Monaghan, but Im increasingly feeling from anyone I chat with involved in politics that this constituency could be a shocker an not return a FF TD. To go from 3 to zero in one election. The result could be FG 3 SF 2.
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