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  1. #331
    SinnShane SinnShane is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by northern Gael View Post
    Here's my sixpence worth, 3FG Reilly, Humphreys & Conlan 1FF Smith 1SF COC. Cant see SF getting a second seat. Ind Treanor will take a bit away from SF and he may not be that transfer friendly fo SF (thats what they say at the doors!). Maggie Conlon may get ready for the new school year in sept at St Louis Monaghan.
    This is getting ridiculous!
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  2. #332
    northern Gael northern Gael is offline
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    Why?
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  3. #333
    stalins granny stalins granny is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SinnShane View Post
    This is getting ridiculous!
    Tell me about it, there must be over 50 new logins all fine gael supporters in the last 24 hours, all spamming away with pre- prepared posts.
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  4. #334
    drumlin utopian drumlin utopian is offline

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    Fine Gael's social media stormtroopers are everywhere over the last week or so, and in the case of Cavan Monaghan they'd seriously need to calm down- they're running four candidates for a maximum of three seats, so no matter what level of support they think they have, they need to realise it's a risky strategy.
    In the absence of constituency polls, ruling K Reilly out is pure folly. Also, who can even guess what FF's support really is?
    I think it's SF1, FG2, FF1 and the last seat to be fought for by FG3 and SF2.
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  5. #335
    taighde taighde is offline

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    I agree that it would be folly to rule out either Katryn Reilly or a third Fine Gal candidate or, dare I say it, the second Fianna Fáil seat. I feel that the last possibility is least likely as I still see no sign of a stomach by Fianna Fáil to seriously contest this election, at least not in my area! For Kathryn Reilly to be confident of success, she will need 8,000 first preferences, but she will still be in with an excellent chance if she has about 7,000 first preferences. Any less than that and a Fine Gael third seat has to become a real possibility, depending on how their transfer strategy works for them (1, 2, 3, 4 is possible from committed party supporters, but is far less likely from non-party voters). A risky strategy, as drumlin utopian says, but I think they can be absolutely certain of Humphreys and O'Reilly, so it's probably a risk worth taking. Still, the second Sinn Féin seat has to be the most likely scenario if Reilly reaches 7,000! Does Sinn Féin in Cavan think that this is a realistic target?
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  6. #336
    Mac Attack Mac Attack is offline

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    Constituency Betting - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

    What do we think of the odds Paddy Power are offering, broadly in line or not?
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  7. #337
    drumlin utopian drumlin utopian is offline

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    I'm surprised that there are shorter odds for Margaret Conlon than for Sean Conlan but as Taighde says, FF can't be ruled out for a second seat. Also the fact that Kathryn Reilly is ahead of Heather Humphreys should worry FG...
    In complete contradiction to what I've just said though, while Brendan Smith was always a huge vote getter, there may be (I emphasise maybe) a chance his vote will fall significantly more than people expect: He has local competition in the shape of McVitty and Forde will take at least a few 1st prefs around Cavan meaning he may be left depending on Conlon's transfers to get elected (Last time, the FF transfers went the other way but were quite tribal). Crazy though it sounds, the 5th seat would be the FF seat after whatever FG or SF people get in.
    I think it's that unpredictable- I've got friends canvassing both for SF and FG (separately of course )and they're in the dark too really as to how it'll pan out.
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  8. #338
    On_The_Far_Right On_The_Far_Right is offline
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    We were canvassed at home here for first time in this election and it was Katherine Reillys campaign. Now Id live in the Ballyjamesduff district, but in a Virginia Parish, but seems they are starting to love out of the towns and villages and pick off other areas now too.
    Initially I was cautious as I didnt recognise car or occupants, but they were poliite, if a little casually dressed. Told them my votes were committed and they thanked me and moved on.
    No one yet from FG FF Lab Green Indo ......... but early days!
    Posters are very few and far between along N3 Virginia Cavan and also sparce enough in Virginia and Ballyjamesduff villages.
    I just sense (not being too involved in this election for health reasons) this campaign is being fought in media rather on doorsteps!!
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  9. #339
    Observer2 Observer2 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by On_The_Far_Right View Post
    We were canvassed at home here for first time in this election and it was Katherine Reillys campaign. Now Id live in the Ballyjamesduff district, but in a Virginia Parish, but seems they are starting to love out of the towns and villages and pick off other areas now too.
    Initially I was cautious as I didnt recognise car or occupants, but they were poliite, if a little casually dressed. Told them my votes were committed and they thanked me and moved on.
    No one yet from FG FF Lab Green Indo ......... but early days!
    Posters are very few and far between along N3 Virginia Cavan and also sparce enough in Virginia and Ballyjamesduff villages.
    I just sense (not being too involved in this election for health reasons) this campaign is being fought in media rather on doorsteps!!
    It must be for health reasons that posters seem to be disapearing around Virginia also, whats going on?
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  10. #340
    gerrymac gerrymac is offline
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    Cavan transfer

    Quote Originally Posted by taighde View Post
    I agree that it would be folly to rule out either Katryn Reilly or a third Fine Gal candidate or, dare I say it, the second Fianna Fáil seat. I feel that the last possibility is least likely as I still see no sign of a stomach by Fianna Fáil to seriously contest this election, at least not in my area! For Kathryn Reilly to be confident of success, she will need 8,000 first preferences, but she will still be in with an excellent chance if she has about 7,000 first preferences. Any less than that and a Fine Gael third seat has to become a real possibility, depending on how their transfer strategy works for them (1, 2, 3, 4 is possible from committed party supporters, but is far less likely from non-party voters). A risky strategy, as drumlin utopian says, but I think they can be absolutely certain of Humphreys and O'Reilly, so it's probably a risk worth taking. Still, the second Sinn Féin seat has to be the most likely scenario if Reilly reaches 7,000! Does Sinn Féin in Cavan think that this is a realistic target?
    The Cavan SF vote is 4-5 thousand,but with FF in free fall this will increase,by now much is yet to be seen.I wouldnt worry that much if Katryn Reilly polled less than 7000 first preferences in Cavan,as both Hogan and Forde will poll well,but will then transfer strongly to SF,to bring her across the line.
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