Tories pulling clear in latest guardian poll

[SilverSpurs]

The tories have increased their lead to 9% in the latest guardian poll
Tories-40
Labour-31
LibDem-20
Others-9

Looks like the Brown bounce has come too soon and he has made a major error in delaying the election until May. Although the same webpage shows the Tories may inherit an economy in dissarray.

Politics news, UK and world political comment and analysis | Politics | guardian.co.uk

[toxic avenger]

I don't think there was ever going to be any other date than May 6th, given the local elections. I do think it'll be far closer than that come the day. I'm guessing a hung parliament and a neutered Brown being propped up in power by nationalists and liberals.

[Sync]

The debates will be interesting. My bet is that the Lib Dems add at least 3 from Clegg's performance. Putting the traditionally smaller party on an equal debate footing with the big 2 will help them out.

[SilverSpurs]

To be honest the LibDems would be mad to put Labour back in after all the damage they have done. They should squeeze as much as they can from the Tories.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

The debates will be key. I note that the economy debate is the last of the three and will keep people interested.

[toxic avenger]

To be honest the LibDems would be mad to put Labour back in after all the damage they have done. They should squeeze as much as they can from the Tories.

The Greens prop up FF still, and that was after all their stuff about 'Planet Bertie'. If the deal is favourable enough to the Liberals, they'll prop Brown up.

[Chrisco]

The Tories are up 2 points since the last ICM poll.

It is a bit premature to say they are 'pulling clear'.

There is a long way to go until May 6th...

[toxic avenger]

The debates will be key. I note that the economy debate is the last of the three and will keep people interested.

I think the debates have been over-hyped (particularly by the Murdoch outlets). I think many voters will dismiss them as hot air, or else not watch them at all. They will pay more heed to how the tabloids spin the debates than to the debates themselves (and I can guarantee that the Murdoch press will spin them in favour of the Tories - the deal has already been done).

[locke]

To be honest the LibDems would be mad to put Labour back in after all the damage they have done. They should squeeze as much as they can from the Tories.

If they got PR out of it, it would be worth the damage it would do in the polls.

[Chrisco]

The Tories are up 2 points since the last ICM poll.

It is a bit premature to say they are 'pulling clear'.

There is a long way to go until May 6th...

The debates will be interesting. My bet is that the Lib Dems add at least 3 from Clegg's performance. Putting the traditionally smaller party on an equal debate footing with the big 2 will help them out.

Absolutely. They got a 4 point bounce with YouGov over the weekend off the back of coverage of their spring conference in the news, taking them up to 21%, and YG is the pollster who usually has them polling lowest.

If they can maintain this level going into the campaign then I would expect them to do better in terms of SOTV if not seats than in 2005; that would spell disaster for Brown.