[UK] Can Labour win in 2010?

[evercloserunion]

Sorry for the long post. For those who don't want to read my rant, short version of OP is: Paper says Labour could win election in UK, do you agree?

Interesting article on ThePost.ie (not sure if it's in the print edition of the SBP) today assessing Labour's chance of seeing off Cameron in the 2010 GE.

Labour and Brown are ready to face down Cameron challenge | The Post

The Tories have long been favourites to win the next GE in the UK and a few months ago it was pretty much a given that Cameron would take 10 Downing, but as the article says, the poll at the end of 2009 shows a narrowing gap. The article cites numerous reasons for Labour's recovery; Brown's class war rhetoric, a revitalised Labour after the re-emergence of Mandelson and Campbell in the party, a fear that the Tories lack the experience to tackle such a massive economic crisis, etc. But it is also suggested that a significant lapse in international confidence in the British economy before the election could be the death knell for Labour's re-election chances.

British Labour and Fianna Fáil are, IMO, similar in many respects; both governed through the prosperous years of the late 90s/early 00s, and also the subsequent crash. Both have leaders who were thrown into the thick of it after their predecessors resigned. And of course, both are now facing serious challenges to their credibility and popularity as against their political opponents.

But it might be said that FF are luckier than Labour, in that their mandate doesn't expire until 2012 whereas Labour are trying to have theirs renewed this year. I think all but the most pessimistic economic forecasts predict some sort of economic recovery by 2012 whereas, while there are signs that things are improving, it looks like we will still be in the thick of this economic mess until at least the end of this year. In that sense, Labour seem to have been dealt a worse hand than FF; they will be campaigning for re-election on the back of an economic decline, while FF may well be campaigning on the back of a recovery.

I think if Labour want to salvage the GE they will have to be very vocal about any and all economic good news in 2010. The good news and the recovery will be there, it will just be more subtle and on a smaller scale than many would like.

Does anyone here actually believe Labour have a decent chance of holding power in the 2010 election?

[Catalpa]

I don't think its very likely that Labour will win the next BGE.

The thing is whether the Tories can cross the line with enough of a majority to form a stable Government.

If the Tories cannot do it and the markets sense a hung parliament then Labour will be hung out to dry well B4 hand.

So its a bit of a two edged sword for Brown - he has to win and win big

- and thats kinda unlikely!

Could be the Liberals will be the only ones smiling on Election Night in that scenario...


Mandy running for Lord mayor of London in 2012?

- now that shoudld be a laugh!

[TommyO'Brien]

The problem is that Britain's first past the post means that proportionality is not guaranteed in election results. So Labour could do better than the polls suggest and get crucified, or worse and hold more seats. It is an odd system that way.

That said, I don't see Labour having much of a chance, though I suspect a better chance than FF. FF's policies are more demonstrably at fault in causing a fiscal crisis than Labour's. That doesn't mean that Labour were not as much as fault, just that the narrative in apportioning blame is not as straight forward. That said Brown's performance and that of his team has improved marketedly thanks to the strategic thinking of Mandelson and Campbell. I suspect the outcome of the next election will be a hung parliament, with Labour quite a bit behind the Tories and with the Liberals unable to touch Labour and so by default seeing a Tory government formed. Ultimately the constitutional mechanics could be decisive. Will Brown try to hold on like Heath did in 1974 and hope to form a government with the Liberals, or will he resign as PM? If he does then under constitutional precedent the Queen will commission the Leader of the Opposition to form a government, and that will give Cameron an advantage. To avoid having to resign Brown has to have a justifiable reason for not resigning, and that would mean having more seats than the Tories, and/or more popular votes, and the prospect of a coalition with the Lib Dems. I don't see that happening, so right now it is advantage the Tories.

[Theowolfe]

NO. The best they can hope for is a hung parliament. But the LibDems could not support a minority Labour government.

Unionists could be decisive. Cameron will be Prime Minister.