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  1. #11
    Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS) Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS) is offline
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    Rots plan is to buy some property in close proximity to the hard/soft/permeable border and start digging for future success....
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  2. #12
    robut robut is offline

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    Well, I have been getting soundings down here in Munster area from businesses, SMEs I deal with of all different genres and types.

    Interesting many are saying since about June this year turnover and margins have been at best FLAT. Down on last few years. And expecting similar into 2018.

    The main reason .. BREXIT, they think. The uncertainty. Many saying firms they deal with holding off on purchase decisions because they in turn are having purchase decisions held back on them by other companies who's big purchase decisions and/or contracts are made 2, 3 years out & might or do involve UK companies, expertise etc. So the uncertainty at the moment has many decisions on hold. going forward, especially now as March 2019 is within that 2/3 year decision period.

    Also interesting is .. due to economies of scale, within Ireland, Dublin is not as affected for some reason. I have 3 different firms now thinking of opening an office in Dublin to try and stem the flow so to speak ..
    Last edited by robut; 6th December 2017 at 10:36 PM.
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  3. #13
    brughahaha brughahaha is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by robut View Post
    Well, I have been getting soundings down here in Munster area from businesses, SMEs I deal with of all different genres and types.

    Interesting many are saying since about June this year turnover and margins have been at best FLAT. Down on last few years. And expecting similar into 2018.

    The main reason .. BREXIT, they think. The uncertainty. Many saying firms they deal with holding off on purchase decisions because they in turn are having purchase decisions held back on them by other companies who's purchase decisions are made 2, 3 years out & might or do involve UK companies, expertise etc. So the uncertainty at the moment has many decisions on hold. going forward.
    My experience would be SME annoyance at the political obsession with the North ,which economically is a pittance compared to the East West trade.

    Was in my local stationary supply shop and he basically said he gets everything from the UK which started the conversation . 4 small businesses , all in the local Business Association chatting , none of us too happy with how things are going
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  4. #14
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    UK business I have been involved in have made extensive plans to set up manufacturing plants in EU.

    WTO trade terms will wipe out ALL profit and that is a combination of Import tax and Export Tax plus cost of administering it.

    UK job losses potentially 1000 plus plus but will be done by cutting back on agency use and short term contracts plus not replacing or relocating people.

    Genuine uncertainty is holding back decisions and will for another 2 years.

    Allied with reduced number of people coming into UK plus those leaving then this will hold back the UK Growth they had been experiencing.
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  5. #15
    gleeful gleeful is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by odie1kanobe View Post
    UK business I have been involved in have made extensive plans to set up manufacturing plants in EU.

    WTO trade terms will wipe out ALL profit and that is a combination of Import tax and Export Tax plus cost of administering it.

    UK job losses potentially 1000 plus plus but will be done by cutting back on agency use and short term contracts plus not replacing or relocating people.

    Genuine uncertainty is holding back decisions and will for another 2 years.

    Allied with reduced number of people coming into UK plus those leaving then this will hold back the UK Growth they had been experiencing.
    I think the assumption that the 'transition period' will be business-as-usual is very dangerous. They haven't even started negotiation on it yet.
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  6. #16
    gleeful gleeful is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by brughahaha View Post
    My experience would be SME annoyance at the political obsession with the North ,which economically is a pittance compared to the East West trade.

    Was in my local stationary supply shop and he basically said he gets everything from the UK which started the conversation . 4 small businesses , all in the local Business Association chatting , none of us too happy with how things are going
    The Irish gov's hope is that the north will be a wedge issue that forces the UK as a whole to reconsider leaving the customs union.
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  7. #17
    brughahaha brughahaha is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by gleeful View Post
    The Irish gov's hope is that the north will be a wedge issue that forces the UK as a whole to reconsider leaving the customs union.
    I dont think so ..... they were happy to accept special status for NI until the DUP pulled the plug ........

    They've been completely played by Brussels (again) IMO ... and are obsessing about the North ,(feeling big and important throwing down the gauntlet to the UK and suiting the EU agenda perfectly) which is an irrelevance compared to the East West imports and exports and the vital importance of the continued freedom of movement over the landbriddge
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  8. #18
    Victor Meldrew Victor Meldrew is offline
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    We've benefited from the weak sterling, as we import a lot of services , but the sting will be replacing the services with EU (english speaking) service providers. And the other anglophone markets are just too far away (australia), too expensive (the US) , or not really anglophone (India). There are some industries where the brits just dominate, especially in the international sectors where English is the language.

    Even with WTO rates, in some sectors, the UK may still be competitive in Europe, considering the productivity gains by only being 1 hour out, and the US being seriously expensive.
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  9. #19
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by gleeful View Post
    I think the assumption that the 'transition period' will be business-as-usual is very dangerous. They haven't even started negotiation on it yet.
    At a business briefing of a sizeable entity today, MD unknown even with size of business but its in Agric sector snd they sending 100 Christmas cards to MPs as they have interests in that many constituencies. They meet with MPs across political spectrum all the time and message was nobody knows.

    As I know he is a big student of history he likened it to a phony war with the hard stuff still to come.

    Any investment is to increase machanisation and take headcount out.
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  10. #20
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Victor Meldrew View Post
    We've benefited from the weak sterling, as we import a lot of services , but the sting will be replacing the services with EU (english speaking) service providers. And the other anglophone markets are just too far away (australia), too expensive (the US) , or not really anglophone (India). There are some industries where the brits just dominate, especially in the international sectors where English is the language.

    Even with WTO rates, in some sectors, the UK may still be competitive in Europe, considering the productivity gains by only being 1 hour out, and the US being seriously expensive.
    UK business will have to comply with EU guidelines and they will be tweaked to make it difficult for them.

    Additionally there is a definite plan to ensure UK pays penalty with zero sympathy anywhere across EU.
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