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  1. #7571
    Sync Sync is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trainwreck View Post
    Walking away is absolutely the best policy for the UK, based on an unemotional and informed analysis. The potential economic gains are substantial.
    See here's the thing. "No deal" means the planes stop flying, hard border goes up, English and EU citizens in different countries immediately become undocumented immigrants etc. What people really mean is "No trade deal, we go on WTO rates". Walking away is absolutely not an option.
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  2. #7572
    Fr. Hank Tree Fr. Hank Tree is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betson View Post
    At the end of the day German and French industry fear a no deal scenario more than anyone else , they will put pressure on the EU to negotiate , it is all about saving face for the EU now , a lot of back room talking going on between both sides.
    They fear an unravelling of the EU even more.
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  3. #7573
    toconn toconn is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trainwreck View Post
    Walking away is absolutely the best policy for the UK, based on an unemotional and informed analysis. The potential economic gains are substantial.
    any actual evidence for that statement ? where are the hard facts that point to substantial gains , not pie in the sky now or assumptions or " its bound to work out " but actual factual evidence ???
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  4. #7574
    Cnoc a Leassa Cnoc a Leassa is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    Mmmmm. Is it? The EU last went away without the UK and came back with a set of criteria for Barnier to stick to. He's stuck to them. The criteria has not been met, so Phase 2 isn't reached.

    The EU going away without the UK to develop a new set of trade criteria to give to Barnier to stick to once Phase 1 has been met is hardly a victory is it? It doesn't mean you're closer to finishing phase 1. And if anything: It just means that the EU will be more prepared and embedded in their position when the discussions DO start and the UK won't be. Because they won't have their position prepared. Again.
    The idea that EU and Governments are only now starting with planning for a transition phase or a new relationship deal with Britain seems absurd to me. What they have done is to simply offer half a leaf to PM May.
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  5. #7575
    hollandia hollandia is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betson View Post
    At the end of the day German and French industry fear a no deal scenario more than anyone else , they will put pressure on the EU to negotiate , it is all about saving face for the EU now , a lot of back room talking going on between both sides.
    Except that that already isn't happening.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...uk-over-brexit

    German industry has warned Britain not to rely on its help in securing a good Brexit deal, in a stark intervention that strikes a blow at the government’s EU departure plans.

    Senior ministers have repeatedly claimed since the election that Germany’s powerful exporters will exert pressure for a deal handing Britain substantial access to the EU’s markets.

    However, ministers are told that it is up to the British government to limit the economic fallout from its decision to leave the single market. With the government facing new pressure from business to soften its Brexit plans, German industrialists also warn that Britain will struggle to avoid economic damage as a result of exiting the bloc.
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  6. #7576
    Mitsui2 Mitsui2 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betson View Post
    At the end of the day German and French industry fear a no deal scenario more than anyone else , they will put pressure on the EU to negotiate , it is all about saving face for the EU now , a lot of back room talking going on between both sides.
    Unlike many old jokes, this one still retains the ability to raise a smile whenever I hear it - though for some reason I hear it less and less these days.
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  7. #7577
    Se0samh Se0samh is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitsui2 View Post
    Unlike many old jokes, this one still retains the ability to raise a smile whenever I hear it - though for some reason I hear it less and less these days.
    A despairing one partnered with a shake of the head.........
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  8. #7578
    Sync Sync is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cnoc a Leassa View Post
    The idea that EU and Governments are only now starting with planning for a transition phase or a new relationship deal with Britain seems absurd to me. What they have done is to simply offer half a leaf to PM May.
    The transition phase is pretty easy. Once you've lined up the post-brexit picture (B), the transition phase sees the UK enjoy the benefits and observe the responsibilities as they move towards B. That's why May was so quick to commit the 20 billion. It's a gimme.

    As for the post-Brexit deal: That discussion's going to be real quick. The EU 27 will sit down and look at Barnier's little print off and say "Are we happy to offer the UK the Canada/Japan option, the Norway option and the Swiss option and let them pick?"

    And then they'll all say yes, and that's what Barnier will say his mandate is.
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  9. #7579
    Cnoc a Leassa Cnoc a Leassa is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    The transition phase is pretty easy. Once you've lined up the post-brexit picture (B), the transition phase sees the UK enjoy the benefits and observe the responsibilities as they move towards B. That's why May was so quick to commit the 20 billion. It's a gimme.

    As for the post-Brexit deal: That discussion's going to be real quick. The EU 27 will sit down and look at Barnier's little print off and say "Are we happy to offer the UK the Canada/Japan option, the Norway option and the Swiss option and let them pick?"

    And then they'll all say yes, and that's what Barnier will say his mandate is.
    Agree with that with following addition

    IMO EU have done such expansive and thorough preparation covering all possibilities, and Britain has done so little so far, that EU has comprehensively out maneuvered Britain at every stage of discussions so far. Its been several decades since Britain has suffered such a diplomatic setback.

    The frustrations on Britain's side are very evident at this stage. Gone so bad for them that some of the most committed Brexiteers are now willing to embrace a self destructive option ahead of reevaluation.
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  10. #7580
    Spanner Island Spanner Island is offline
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    There's a HUGE capitulation coming wrt to the kind of Brexit that vehement Brexiteers have been banging on about since their campaign of BS kicked off...

    It won't be a massive capitulation for anyone who adopted a realistic perspective on Brexit and what is realistically possible...

    But wrt the horsesh!t that was the Leave campaign... Brexit won't come close to the boll*cks they spewed and it will look nothing like the BS they sold to voters.

    I doubt Farage et al will be happy... which is a good thing...
    Last edited by Spanner Island; 20th October 2017 at 06:45 PM.
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