Ahmadinejad 'wins' again

dunk · #**471** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Whos watching who?
Whos pushing whose buttons?

EU ready to put Big Brother Britain in the dock

Quote:

The European Commission (EC) has followed through on its threat and has instigated legal action against the UK government over the testing of Phorm's "deep packet inspection" and so-called "behavioural advertising" software without the consent of users, writes Martyn Warwick.

Last year BT, the UK's incumbent telco, carried out trials of the Phorm system over its broadband network and on customers who were unaware that they were being used as guinea pigs and having their web browsing habits spied upon.

Now what really is going on in Iran, are people in prison, being tortured, or worse, as Iranian state used these DPI systems to keep tabs and take hold of those seeking, non violently, CHANGE in Iran.

cactusflower · #**472** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

[quote]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edo

I not going to pretend that Im some kind of expert on this situation - but I would wager that Mousavi is now a figurehead and rallying point for those in Iran who has lost total faith in the ruling regime - its not his own personal popularity per se - its the fact that he is the only one standing up and calling the emperors new clothes for what they are.

You simply cannot count 32 million paper ballots in 4 hours and call a definite result - its simply not physically possible - there were no exit polls taken - and the margin of victory is simply off the richter scale - thats what this is about. If the result had been closer, going to a run off as nearly everybody had expected - we would not be having this conversation.

Cactus - the result just smelled - I've been involved in enough campaigns now to have a reasonable nose has to how the wind is blowing - most people have and thats why there are relatively few surprises in Irish, European, Indian or anywhere in the world where there are free and open elections - it was the absolute two fingers that the ruling regime gave to the whole democractic process in the Iran that has resulted in the revolts you are seeing now - absolute dismissal of that they have done anything wrong, that the result is unquestionable, the entire shutting down of the media and communication systems and the fact that the other power in Iran , the Spiritual leader, has so obviously taken sides and meddled in the result has left a power vaccum and a total loss of faith in the entire system - particularly among the large and growing middleclass.

It does seem likely that the results were faked. We'll never know if A. would have won or not: it seems to me likely that he wanted to avoid a run off.

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I have no doubt that Adhjemidhad would have won after a run off - he indeed has significant popularity among the poor and working class with his classic bread and circuses routine over the last 4-5 years - a huge inflationary populist subsidised culture of the basics of bread,cooking oils and petrol which was financed by the huge petro-dollar revenues of the last few years - but at the end of the day -because of the inflation - has left them little better off than they were 5 years ago - but its the perception that matters (FF have been doing the same to us for the last 12years).

Not only inflation but the extreme volatility of the price of oil in the last two years has left the economy in a very poor state.

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That said - the working class and the poor never start revolutions - they are content with scraps from the top table and circuses (ie the nuclear weapons programme) to keep them amused - been like this since the time of the Caesars- (indeed if you look at the last elections here - the main demographic that stuck rigidly most closely with FF was the DE group - the working class and the poor - its was the middle class and public sector that voted for Joe H and Richie Barrett) - it was the middle class who fomented the American Revolution, the French Revolution, the 1848 and 1870 communes in Europe and the Russian Revolutions at the begining of the last century - to start a revolution you have to have ambition and a belief that you have been stopped from realising your ambitions and that only a overthrow of the current regime will allow you to proceed and make a better world - until the whole thing goes full circle again - societies that are more tolerant and allow a degree of social mobility are those that tend to have the most stable political and social systems.

Revolutions have served the interests of different classes. The middleclasses can rely on an alliance with the working class or vice versa. The Russian Revolution was primarily working class, with a section of the middle class rowing in with it.

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This , IMHO, is what is going to the heart of the Iranian crises at the moment - the people who are out demonstrating most actively are the sons and daughters and grandsons and daughters of the same men and women who toppled the Shah in 1979 and for primarily the same reason - the Shahs regime had fossilised into a ruling autocracy, the economy had collapsed into a basket case and was divided internally into lots of monopolies controlled and owned by the Shahs families,friends and associates and kept in place by the Savak and Militarry and there was no way in and the US was seen, correctly, as the chief proper-up of this regime.

The Shah was toppled by a movement that included the working classes. The Tudeh Party was an important part of it, and by its misreading of the nature of the islamic movement set itself up for the slaughter.

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Well things have turned full circle - social mobility has disappeared, the security forces are primarily concerned with enforcing the new status quo, the economy turned into a basket case years ago after the little light let in during Khatami's modest reform period have been completely shut down and generally the middle class are just screaming to be allowed a little room to breathe - the totally botched elections were simply the final straw for many - how would you feel if ,in the face of nearly all evidence - FF managed to gain an overall majority of 30 at the next election - given all the evidence - you would expect it to be close anyway!) - and the protestors couldn't give a fig about the CIA , PNAC, Israel and the regional geo-political considerations.

I agree that the state of the economy is a good part of what's driving things: maybe we should see the demonstrations in the context of the mass demonstrations that have taken place in Greece and Latvia in the last year. Having said that, the form of the events so far has been political, even if the content to a large extent economic.

Your picture of a faked FF GE win has me half outside the door with a banner already.

The demonstrators may not be thinking much about the outside players, but the players are thinking about them. It always does to keep a weather eye open.

In the meantime, it is encouraging to see that the Iranian Trade Union movement is shifting into action and is calling for support for an International Day of Solidarity on June 26th.

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Cactus - your beliefs are a matter of faith to you - and I find that people of faith will see ghosts where they want to see ghosts - sadly I'm just very cynical pragmatist with no particular world view or faith, but it does allow me to call a spade a spade ,irrespective of geo-political or ideological considerations and I think you should give the Iranian protestors the benefit of the doubt here and be thankful you live in a country where you can wear what you want, apply for any job you want, talk to who you want and espouse any political belief system and values that you want without fear.

I don't have political beliefs as such. I've got an allegiance and I try to fathom out what is going on, in terms of facts and processes. You probably haven't seen posts of mine in which I've said that the demonstrations have gone way beyond anything that an outside body could provoke.

We're both looking at the same Iran.

Thac0man · #**473** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by swansandtyphus

The following video shows two men who have been shot be Iranian police at a demonstration in Iran. One man has clearly suffered a fatal wound to the head with the back his skull blown open. The other man has a wound to the pelvis.
This is what the Iranian people have to risk when they demand their human rights.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivcu-...eature=related

I agree, but I think it goes further than that. The rights Iranians are being refused are the very ones the government is supposed to uphold under its own laws, not by the expectation of any international agreement. What is being stripped away is the last vestage of liberty that was won with the overthrow of the Shah. It calls into question whether or not those slim democratic rights were ever a reality or have ever had any value under the current theocracy.

Further to that the duty of the theocracy to uphold its own laws and claims to be acting in the best interests of Iranians is also now in severe question.

Someone took issue with my comparison between Iran and North Korea earlier in this thread. But once the elites of a regime have removed themsevles from their own peoples influance and opinion, they then weild power for their own ends. As this crises has developed the comparison between the autocratic North Korea and the Iranian theocracy becomes harder to escape.

Thac0man · #**474** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhonda15

To date has any hard evidence been produced that there was fraud?

Yes. Yes there has. The Iranian Council of Experts has said that in a few districts where they examined the results, more ballots than there are voters were counted.

Now that either means there was ballot stuffing:
Ballot stuffing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Or the oppostion claim that the results were tampered with by massaging the figures after the vote are true.

Either way there was tampering. The Councils admission that this took place and subsequent refusal to annul the election is baffling, but does not reverse the finding that there was much irregularity during and after the election with regard to the vote tally.

dunk · #**475** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Iranian "bullet fees"

Quote:

Report: Iran Ordered Family of Slain Protester to Pay $3,000 “Bullet Fee”

The Wall Street Journal reports the Iranian government ordered the family of a slain nineteen-year-old protester to pay $3,000 in order to get his body back. The $3,000 has been described as a “bullet fee”—a fee for the bullet used by security forces to kill their son. The fee was waived after the family agreed not to hold a funeral or burial in Tehran. All mosques in Tehran have been reportedly prohibited from holding memorials or publicly mourning the deaths of protesters.

click link to watch video

Certainly looks like someone is doing some shooting out there, id agree with above poster, id say it is NOT a CIA attempt coup like attempted in Venezuala, but those fearful of CHANGE, trying desperately to hold by bringing huge level of FEAR to people to even think about going on the streets, as this recent poster in Iran outlined:

Update: Monday 8 pm Tehran time (last night)

Quote:

Tehran resident: I am just back from 7 tir square where there was supposed to be a memorial for the 7th day of the martyrs.

Drove down there at 4 ish. there were a lot of people in the square, but no one allowed to gather, so people were just walking up and down the meydoon (square). there was a HEAVY military presence — all kinds, basij, riot police, khahki (camouflage) uniformed ones — all on motorbikes, or in pick up trucks or standing — they ALL had those batons and weren’t allowing people to stand still (ie. gather). we walked around and tried to have a look from those walkways that cover the meydoon/square but the police were also on them so wouldn’t let u stand still for a second.

people were also gathering in the koocheh’s (alleyways) off the side of the square too see what was going to happen and if we could gather in one place. there was not just young people, but all kinds of age groups and people from all walks of life. then the police would start coming to an alley where a lot of people were and shout at them to move along/disperse. they would then get aggro and start chasing people down the alleyways, hitting with batons. people would run but then gather in another alleyway… very resilient.

we moved through the various alleyways too until shouted at to leave. these police are v v intimidating. like animals really as u just dont know if they are gonna wack you (which they would). i wanted to take photos of the milit presence, but it was way too scary. honestly people who manage to record or take photos are incredibly shoja (brave). then we saw that they had blockaded one alleyway (koocheh mina) and people were getting trapped and beaten up with the batons. there were people on roofs/windows looking so i hope they managed to record some stuff. we moved around the meydoon and streets. after hearing/seeing that they were blockading people in alleys.

we decided it was safer to stay in the main square and move around. over the few hours it was getting busier with protesters, but i think they needed someone like mousavi or another figure so as to gather around him. it was v v difficult to gather.

then we moved to another side of the square and the police started chasing and tear gassing people — it really spreads… and though i wasn’t too close it went up my nose and had a strong burning/stinging sensation. people were now wearing those surgical masks but there eyes were all red. people were lighting cigarettes and blowing the smoke into peoples eyes as it helps get rid of the stinging. i gave several people cigarettes to help and blew smoke into a strangers faces to help them (something i would of course never do!!). then the police started chasing people down a street and smashing windows and following protesters into bldngs which was quite scary (no where is safe then).

we kept moving around the meydoon and streets, as were other people, which were definately in their thousands. people were breaking into sporadic chants of ‘allah akbars’ on the meydoon — which i managed to record.

then around 6 ish we were standing near an alley entrance and the police on motorbikes with batons started chasing us badly. we could only run up the street and they are chasing u on these bikes about 5/6 mtrs away shouting at u to disperse — it is absolutely petrifying. we were running on the sidewalk. they also had whips with them. there were so many of them just riding and shouting at you. then we heard shots and u just don’t know whether they are going to even shoot (as we know they have done before). i am not sure whether it was guns or firecrackers or what but at the time u all think is that it is guns, and that u are about to feel a bullet hit u in the back or something as u run. all i did was run with my hands clasped (like i was praying) and just trying to make eye contact with them so that they could see the sheer fear in my face! then a door opened in the street and some people were ushering us into their garden to hide in there in case the motor police guys came back (honestly there must have been like 50-70 of them chasing us).

we then hid in this grdn for a bit with like 20 or so other people but it really wasn’t the best idea. i thought as i had seen them go into people’s houses and smash doors etc minutes before and then there is no escape for u. so we waited like 10 mins and crept out. it was really quite scary. anyways. let us see what else comes out of the news this evening. i hope no one was killed but i do know pple were beaten up for sure.

also, on another note, i heard (god knows if it was true) that hashemi-rafsanjani has just come from qom with 40 signatures.

dunk · #**476** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Regarding vote rigging etc:

From very well respected Democracy Now (amy goodman alternative nobel prize winner, critical site of all things stopping peace and true democracy)
After a Day of Deadly Protests, Iran’s Guardian Council Admits Voting Irregularities Took Place in Presidential Election

Quote:

Iran’s powerful Guardian Council has admitted that voting irregularities took place in at least fifty cities and that the number of votes cast exceeded the number of voters by a difference of as many as three million ballots.

few related posts:

Iran Guardian Council admits voting irregularity but says it's normal - International Business Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/wo...st/23iran.html
Iran's Guardian Council admits to election irregularities : Middle East World

One mans, or nations, "voting errors", could well be another man, or nations, vote rigging, no?

cactusflower · #**477** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunk

Regarding vote rigging etc:

From very well respected Democracy Now (amy goodman alternative nobel prize winner, critical site of all things stopping peace and true democracy)
After a Day of Deadly Protests, Iran’s Guardian Council Admits Voting Irregularities Took Place in Presidential Election

few related posts:

Iran Guardian Council admits voting irregularity but says it's normal - International Business Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/wo...st/23iran.html
Iran's Guardian Council admits to election irregularities : Middle East World

One mans, or nations, "voting errors", could well be another man, or nations, vote rigging, no?

The Guardian Council has asked for another 5 days to investigate the count.

Two British diplomats have been expelled by Iran with a tit for tat expulsion by the British (Press tv).

cactusflower · #**478** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunk

Regarding vote rigging etc:

From very well respected Democracy Now (amy goodman alternative nobel prize winner, critical site of all things stopping peace and true democracy)
After a Day of Deadly Protests, Iran’s Guardian Council Admits Voting Irregularities Took Place in Presidential Election

few related posts:

Iran Guardian Council admits voting irregularity but says it's normal - International Business Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/wo...st/23iran.html
Iran's Guardian Council admits to election irregularities : Middle East World

One mans, or nations, "voting errors", could well be another man, or nations, vote rigging, no?

Ironically, Fox TV was comparing this in a joking way with Louisiana, Florida and Chicago.

Quote:

Certainly looks like someone is doing some shooting out there, id agree with above poster, id say it is NOT a CIA attempt coup like attempted in Venezuala, but those fearful of CHANGE, trying desperately to hold by bringing huge level of FEAR to people to even think about going on the streets

I think that the Mousavi Green movement has every appearance of another sponsored "Colour Revolution" , but the movement on the streets became much, much wider and not in anyone's control. Its not surprising to see Fox backing off.

Edo · #**479** (**permalink**) 23rd June 2009

This is now going from bad to worse and it will soon be beyond the control of the authorities unless there is severe bloodshed a la 1988 - difference being this time that the whole world is watching and is standing back

Mousavi 'under 24-hour guard' - Middle East, World - The Independent

Mousavi 'under 24-hour guard'

By John Lichfield in Paris

Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Quote:

The Iranian opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi is under 24-hour guard by secret police and no longer able to speak freely to supporters, according to the film director Mohsen Makhmalbaf.

Mr Makhmalbaf, 52, an informal spokesman abroad for the protest in Iran, said that Mr Mousavi was not under arrest but "he has security agents, secret police with him all the time. He has to be careful what he says."

In a telephone interview, Mr Makhmalbaf, the director of the 2001 film Kandaha, denied suggestions that the protests against the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were losing steam.

"The regime, arguably, is losing ground, not the protests," he said. "Ordinary Iranians are openly rejecting the legitimacy and power of Ayatollah Khamanei. That is entirely new, unheard of."

Mr Makhmalbaf, a friend of Mr Mousavi for 20 years, said that there were reports from Iran that some of the militia deployed to suppress protest were "speaking Arabic". "That is unconfirmed but it suggests that the regime is unable to trust its own security forces to repress the Iranian people," he said. "It suggests that people are being used from abroad."

Mr Makhmalbaf is touring Europe to try to explain events in Iran to the media. He denied reports that he had been formally appointed as a spokesman for Mr Mousavi outside Iran. "I am simply speaking on behalf of all the people who are protesting and dying on the streets of Iran," he said.

Mr Mousasvi's means of communication had been cut off, or confiscated, just after the disputed election, Mr Makhmalbaf said. He had therefore been asked informally to make sure that a true picture of what was happening in Iran reached the outside world.

Asked to explain where the protests might go from here, he said that Mr Mousavi had urged his supporters not to confront the regime directly but to "adopt the tactics of Gandhi, the tactics of non-violent protest and civil disobedience".

"The problem is that the more people that are killed, the more angry people will be, the more protesters will want to come out onto the streets."

The film director dismissed all hope of some form of negotiated agreement. "Within the last ten days, there has been a meeting between Mousavi and Ayatollah Khamanei," he said. "Nothing came of this meeting. I do not know of any further dialogue which is now going on."

Asked to explain how a Mousavi-run Iran would differ from an Ahmadinejad-run Iran, Mr Makhmalbaf said: "The first thing to say is that it is now clear that Ahmadinejad is irrelevant. He is not the real power."

If Mousavi was to become president, he said, Iran would invest in "improving the economy for ordinary people, not creating nuclear weapons or supporting conflicts abroad". Secondly, he said, there would be an end to the "constant harassment of young people which means that virtually every young person in Iran has been beaten up by the security forces."

Interesting that piece about possible "arabic involvement" , if verifiable, in the the suppression - I've been wondering why all the petro-despots and the Syrians have been making as like a hole in the ground, but are probably watching events quite intently as this massively concerns them domestically - this is now without a question a domestic uprising and they are mightly concerned that it will spread to them - ie they have exactly the same conditions - lots of religious hardliners who have done deals with the local despots in exchange for a free hand in imposing the worst and most restictive brand of Islam on the planet and with a growing frustrated young and educated middleclass who are close to boiling point.

Id say the boyos in the Heritage foundation and other US "freedom" institutes are feeling like some tits now - after all the expense, both monetary and in lives in the Iraqi adventure - all they had to do, as Obama has done, is back off, say its time for a chat and the whole lid blow off the cooker without an US bullet being fired - then again if it blows - theres no telling where it will end and there are probably some nervous texans and their oil interests wishing that the Iranian regime came to them for some advice on how to cheat without being caught!

And the icing on the cake:

Iran bans election protest footballers | World news | guardian.co.uk

Quote:

Iran bans election protest footballers

Ali Karimi, Mehdi Mahdavikia and two others are 'retired' after sporting green wristbands in World Cup qualifier in Seoul

Their gesture attracted worldwide comment and drew the attention of football fans to Iran's political turmoil. Now the country's authorities have taken revenge by imposing life bans on players who sported green wristbands in a recent World Cup match in protest against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election.

According to the pro-government newspaper Iran, four players – Ali Karimi, 31, Mehdi Mahdavikia, 32, Hosein Ka'abi, 24 and Vahid Hashemian, 32 – have been "retired" from the sport after their gesture in last Wednesday's match against South Korea in Seoul.

They were among six players who took to the field wearing wristbands in the colour of the defeated opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, which has been adopted by demonstrators who believe the 12 June election was stolen.

Most of the players obeyed instructions to remove the armwear at half-time, but Mahdavikia wore his green captain's armband for the entire match. The four are also said to have been banned from giving media interviews.

The fate of the other two players who wore the wristbands is unknown. None of the team members were given back their passports upon returning to Tehran after the match, which ended in a 1-1 draw – a result that ended Iran's hopes of qualifying for next year's tournament.

Karimi is one of Iranian football's best-known stars, having played for the German club Bayern Munich. Ka'abi played for Leicester City for several months during the 2007/8 season. Hashemian and Mahdavikia play for the German teams Bochum and Eintracht Frankfurt.

The gesture acutely embarrassed Iranian officials. The team's chief administrative officer, Mansour Pourhiedari, initially claimed the wristbands had been intended as a religious tribute to a revered Shia figure in the hope that it would deliver a victory on the pitch.

Iran's hardline media have since linked the protest to the arrest on Saturday of Mohsen Safayi Farahani, who headed the country's football governing body under the former reformist president, Mohammad Khatami. He is one of several dozen opposition politicians, intellectuals and journalists to have been detained.

Hezbollah, a pro-Ahmadinejad website, accused Farahani, a member of the pro-reform Islamic participation front, of bribing the players to wear the symbols. Farahani was one of several prominent figures accused by Ahmadinejad of corruption during the recent election campaign.

Ahmadinejad, a known football fan, has taken a close interest in the sport's affairs. In 2006 Iran was banned from international competition by the world governing body Fifa after claims of improper interference by his government. The ban was later lifted.

This year the national team coach Ali Daei was sacked, reportedly on Ahmadinejad's orders, after a 2-1 home defeat by Saudi Arabia.

Classy stuff and right out of the North Korean handbook of diplomacy and tact.

Darth Brooks · #**480** (**permalink**) 24th June 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edo

- difference being this time that the whole world is watching and is standing back

What difference? The Palestinians get killed and kidnapped, beaten, humiliated and tortured everyday. The world watches quite passively in the face of all this.

What do you expect to happen different with the Iranians ?

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