One of the reasons that Ahern stepped aside was out of fear that his legal difficulties could impact on the Lisbon Treaty.
If it is lost will it make Brian Cowen a lame duck Taoiseach?

The government campaign is currently wavering between non existent (Brian Cowen) and counter productive (Dick Roche).

If this treaty is as important as the current Taoiseach claims, why isn't his successor out doing the heavy lifting, or is he waiting patiently for Bertie to exit, before he joins the fray?

Bertie wasnt particularly damaged by the Refusal of the Irish people to ratify the Nice Treaty. However, he was 4 years in the Taoiseach's office and had overseen that ratification of the Art 2/3 Amendments and the Amsterdam in 1998.

If the treaty is defeated, Cowan will be tarnished as he will only be in the job for a matter of months. And it will be a thing he will have to react well to if the worst came to the worst. I would also wager that as the Party who have been most vociferous , Fine Gael could also suffer a backlash if the treaty fails.

depends who your talking about. its clear now that people arent going to vote along party lines. following their own concience instead. in that light they'll go right back to voting to whom they always did afterward so i cant see a no vote leading to a drop in support of FF.

however if your talking about europe thats a different matter. they might actually believe people can be conned into voting anyway a government advises and take it out on the taoiseach if its rejected though i see them blaming bert more than cowan so i reckon he'll dodge the bullet there too.

TBH at this stage i dont see anyone really associating the treaty to any political grouping. if anything it'll show that the EU project is damaged in the public eyes more than any particular government or taoiseach.

I think it might damage Cowen if his government fails to get the electorate to ratify Lisbon,
but don't think it would make Cowen a "lame duck"-a few successes after Lisbon could
help fix his reputation.

Only if he’s standing under it at the time.

more to the point, Cowen was Foreign Minister when Nice I was defeated. It won't damage Cowen's political stance in Ireland if Lisbon fails, however it will damage Ireland's stance in Europe.

Two words... Blame and Bertie.

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"Unless you are an absolute pacifist, then you acknowledge that there are times when taking up arms is appropriate."
- cactusflower

Yes, if the Treaty falls, Cowen’s honeymoon is over. He will have a negative wiff of looser all over him in the same way Gordon Brown’s stock went south when he shilly-shallied over calling an election

He won't be seriously tarnished when the treaty is rejected. Most of the other parties are supporting it too. RTE seem to be tarnished already- on the Week in Politics, there were 3 pro-treaty guests and no one from the no side.....shameful.

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The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.

If Lisbon is rejected, and that's a fairly sizable if, it won't make Cowen a lame duck. He has 4 years left to run before an election, that's longer than John Bruton, Albert Reynolds adn nearly as long as Garret Fitzgerald and Liam Cosgrave.
Besides Bertie stepped on a fair few landmines during his first few months in office in 97-98 and survived. Cowen will be grand.

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Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.