Chris Masterson Crash Course DVD

If you are concerned about what MIGHT be a very different reality in 20 years, can I direct you to the very very helpful dvd that is doing the rounds in transition groups, eco communities, eco consultancy firms etc...



You can watch all the vids freely online here

Review 1 - dark optimism Review 2- post peak living [/URL]- All are also on youtube, heres first;

The rising cost of Oil

After looking at mastersons crash course you might think its still all hokey pokey.

So, lets look at the reality; price of oil is going up (the hockey stick graph seem familiar here?)



Image (1 of the many out there, all with more or less same graph shape) found at:
Lufkin Industries Up as Oil Prices Surge

And due to all this energy demand, and the hunger we have for it, the lengths we go to consume it...
Remember Iraq, Peru, Rossport, Iran?

Hope this will help;

1. IEA estimates decline rate at 6.7% pa nearly double its previous estimate - after auditing the world endowment of oil last year.

2. 4 x Saudi Arabia needed to offset the decline rate alone. 6 to meet demand over the next 20 yrs. Remember it takes 10 years from exploration to production for a new field.

3. Hirsch reporting to the US Dept of Energy in 2005 stated that a crash program at peak would mean 20 years of major disruption in liquid fuel markets. A crash program 10 years out would mean 10 years of shortfalls. A crash program 20 years out would avoid.

4. Peakers variously estimate peak at between 2005 and 2011. There is a lot of consensus. The IEA reckon its 2020 but rely on a dubious increase in Canadian Oil sands which in fact have plateaued at 2 mbd and where the EROEI is highly suspect. NGL's the other saviour has also plateaued. The IEA also rely on €26 trillion spend on infrastructure by 2020 half just to refurb. The IEA already warn of an investment deficit and a severe oil crunch to 2015 at least.

5. There have been no major oil field discoveries since the 1960's. Since 1984 production has exceeded discoveries and since 2005 there has been zero increase in crude oil production. What has increased is propane and butane by-products of maturing fields. ( Source Jeff Rubin CIBC Chief Economist)

Whichever way you come at this it looks like we're already at peak oil in my view. I really do wish it weren't so but its true.

Heres a nice little film which shows how the Transition movement is growing in Kilkenny area, how 400 fruit trees are being planted, including some old species that were lost during the "oil years", now re-planted due to the excellent work over the years of Irish seedsavers. All the while people of all ages and all walks of life are learning about PEAK OIL and with that participating in groups preparing for the change.

Enjoy the film, theres a nice review of it on Rob Hopkins blog

Passing on this from one of the Barcelona Transitioners:

A comedian sketch about peak oil from Robert Newman

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What we are seeing emerging is the largest movement the world has ever seen; the
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There was something formless and perfect
before the universe was born.
It is serene. Empty.
Solitary. Unchanging.
Infinite. Eternally present.
It is the mother of the universe.
For lack of a better name,
I call it the
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.

Transition Towns is going to be one of the most important movements in Ireland over the next 20/30 years. I am glad to see that it is spreading out of Kinsale and getting set up around the Country. If i have the time in a few months, i will do my best to get involved.

The most interesting aspect of the transition Town Movement is their support for local currencies. A few local currencies could make a big difference in a small country like this, particularly if they were supported by local councils.

My main problem with the movement is their position on our future energy needs. The impression i have got is that they see about a third being produced locally through CHP Plants; a third through large-scale wind/wave and a third reduction.

I do not think that CHP plants are really feasible here on a large-scale here. We certainly could not fuel them with anything but gas anyway, so there would not be any benefit in terms of security of supply and probably a great loss in efficiency.

The Transition Town Movement is going to be very important, but it is important that we look at all options.

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"...Money exists not by nature but by law." Aristotle (Ethics, 1133)

One of the primary purposes of Transition Town groups is to create an Energy Descent Plan for their Community. These Plans typically look out to 2020 and 2030 as this is the sort of lead in we will need if we are to prepare adequately for what is coming down the line.

You see a reduction of a third through conservation, whereas I see a reduction of 50% to 66% through conservation.

Gas fired CHP is already more expensive than other alternatives due to the fuel costs, and Gas supplies will come under pressure in the next five or six years due to depletion. By 2030 it is very unlikely that natural gas will be used other than for niche purposes.

Biomass fired CHP is already widely used in Ireland, albeit on a small scale. In Continental Europe and Scandinavia it is used on a massive scale, and is extremely cost effective. The fuel is sourced locally, so there is no security of supply issue, and CHP by its nature is extremely efficient.

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"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte

There is no way that's going to happen in the next 10 to 20 years. Our oil consumption in transport is not going to reduce by much over the next two decades as there are no alternatives ready to replace it. How can we reduce our energy consumption by over half in 10 to 20 years? It's not going to happen.

The large majority of CHP in Europe is Gas-fired. Even if we were to go down that road, it would face serious problems.

Denmark has had CHP for decades. They have the infrastructure. We would have to spend billions in making 100's of small power stations, pipelines and connections. At the end of it, we would still be where we were at the beginning, heavily dependent on Gas.

Biomass CHP is a dead-end. Common sense suggests that. There is nowhere near enough fuel available to supply it. What could be used? All of our hay and straw is already been used. Wood waste is being used for chip-board and medite. Anerobic digestion is nowhere near ready.

It may sound good, but it simply is not feasible.

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"...Money exists not by nature but by law." Aristotle (Ethics, 1133)

Kensington

Algae farming is a possible answer to many of our problems, and is a possible fuel for biomass plant as well, after it has soaked carbon from the atmosphere it can release some in a bio diesel conversion and the rest in a CHP plant

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Regards, Pat Gill
My posting name does not indicate my political views
labourure or greenure, do not have the same ding.

Our oil consumption in transport will be one of the first and most significant reductions as discretionary travel becomes more unaffordable after peak oil.


It will be very difficult to power CHP from Gas when Gas supplies are declining.



We grow more fuel. Simple as.

Hay and straw should always go back on the land otherwise you are removing soil nutrients that will not be possible to replace chemically after the peak.

Chipboard and Medite usage is going to decline in parallel with the decline in construction. Huge tonnages of wood, and wood waste will now be looking for new usages, and Biomass CHP seems to be the best all-round option.



It is perfectly feasible.

__________________
"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte