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Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

This is a discussion on Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05 within the Elections forums, part of the General Discussion category on Politics.ie. Originally Posted by kerrynorth I have beer and cider stockpiled for next weekend. Between all day counts Saturday and Sunday, ...

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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 30th May 2009
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Originally Posted by kerrynorth View Post
I have beer and cider stockpiled for next weekend. Between all day counts Saturday and Sunday, as well as Ireland v Bulgaria, I am pulling a sickie on Monday. Next weekend is like the Olympics for political anoraks.
Lets hope the footie goes well, it will be the perfect weekend if FF are destroyed also.
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Old 30th May 2009
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Garret Fitzgerald offered the opinion that RedC might be the more accurate at the moment as people would be more inclined to vote FF than actually admit it to a pollster.

On that basis the figures are FFing awful - almost as bad as MRBI/IT.
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Old 30th May 2009
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Originally Posted by dotski_w_ View Post

FG 62
FF 43
LP 33
SF 9
GP 2
Oth 17
.
If the Greens hold any it will be Sargent in Dublin North - they will come back with one seat at best.
It is unlikely that there will be 17 Others - but double figures is possible.
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Old 30th May 2009
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The 21% support solid is very interesting actually. They seem to be stuck completely in that range now.

Its the grey FF core vote IMO.
As far as I know FG are now leading in the over 65s. FF's vote collapsed with the medical card debacle.
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Old 30th May 2009
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If the Greens hold any it will be Sargent in Dublin North - they will come back with one seat at best.
Only if the can find enough cabbages to vote for the FF-Lite waster.
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Old 30th May 2009
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If the Greens hold any it will be Sargent in Dublin North - they will come back with one seat at best.
It is unlikely that there will be 17 Others - but double figures is possible.
Double figures is in fact extremely probable on those figures (2 of them are your lot!). Most of the 17 have returned Oth TDs in the last 7 years already.
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Old 30th May 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by droghedasouth View Post
Garret Fitzgerald offered the opinion that RedC might be the more accurate at the moment as people would be more inclined to vote FF than actually admit it to a pollster.

On that basis the figures are FFing awful - almost as bad as MRBI/IT.
in terms of tracking over time red c are the best as in as far as possible they poll the same people each time, so they are a true tracking poll whereas MRBI although very scientific and with a larger sample size is made up of different punters each time so movement is not as easy to track, it is however an accurate moment in time picture whereas red c are the ones to llok at if we are trying to spot trends / surges.
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Old 30th May 2009
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Originally Posted by Simbo67 View Post

As far as I know FG are now leading in the over 65s. FF's vote collapsed with the medical card debacle.
FF's core vote is now the unemployed and those on social welfare.

How long will that last when they start cutting payments?
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Old 30th May 2009
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As far as I know FG are now leading in the over 65s. FF's vote collapsed with the medical card debacle.
Then who are these people? And what is wrong with them?

Is it simply the case that 20% of the population are retarded and/or psychologically disturbed? "My tribe right or wrong" only goes so far, after all events of the last year surely the fact that the current FF party is completely useless must start bleeding through the concrete skull of even the most dedicated follower?
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Old 30th May 2009
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in terms of tracking over time red c are the best as in as far as possible they poll the same people each time, so they are a true tracking poll whereas MRBI although very scientific and with a larger sample size is made up of different punters each time so movement is not as easy to track, it is however an accurate moment in time picture whereas red c are the ones to llok at if we are trying to spot trends / surges.
Thats not true, nor would you want it to be true. They sample 1000 people each month, not the same 1,000 people. With that you get a margin of error of +-3%. If, for some reason that there was some systematic problem with the sample that you are picking, then tracking the same people would increase this problem. For this reason, and others, they use a randomly sampled sample (which, as far as I am aware is representative of the wider population).
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