I wonder who might have said this about the last Red C opinion poll?

Could it have been FutureTaoiseach?

Irish Election Sunday Business Post Red C Poll

You do know that as each regional segment of the poll involved just over 200 respondents, the margin of error is over 5%? If the poll says Ganley is at 16%, that actually means he . . . em . . . somewhere between under 11% and 23%!

No newspaper and no pollster is going to say that a candidate is within such a range. If the range is greater than 6% papers and pollsters tend not to publish them. They would make themselves a laughing stock if they did. But true to form, the true believers of Ganleyism are so blinded by paranoia that they see a newspaper acting in the same way as they would to all the other candidates as some sort of anti-Ganley plot! (It is the same way as when they saw the decision of SIPO applying the exact same rules to Libertas as to all other third parties in referenda they imagined it as some sort of plot against Ganley! In fact those rules were written up long long ago, while Ganley was still in FF.)

In addition, even if Ganley was on 16%, he faces one unsurmountable hurdle - transfers! SFers detest him, seeing him as a puppet of the US military, won't touch him. FGers won't touch him. FFers won't touch him. Left wingers won't touch him, Liberals won't touch him. Harkin supporters won't touch him. He would run into the same problem SF traditionally faces - of being transfer-repellent. So whereas FF (previously, not now) were transfer friendly and that won them extra seats, SF invariably won less seats than their first preference total suggested they should be in the running for, because once they got their own vote they were overtaken by people behind them who got transfers while they were stuck. Because he is transfer-repellent Ganley has to get closer to the 25% on his own steam and not rely on transfers. 16% ain't good enough.

THE NW Constituency is a difficult place to poll and last two times result have slightly different to final outcome. In 99 nobody saw the late surge for Dana.And in 04 this was last polls results
"In North-West the talking point will be the performance of Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty who is up a substantial six points to 15%.

The two Fianna Fáil candidates, Jim McDaid and Sean O'Neachtain, are on 18% and 17% respectively, while Dana is up 3 to 10% but Marian Harkin is holding fast at 16%"
RT News
Actual Results pretty much on the money with harkin and doherty. Sean o too but McDaid only got 12% in the election and Dana got 13.52% .

That poll was pretty accurate for Harkin and Doherty. Harkin ended up with 15.8% of FPs, Doherty with 15.5%.

It overestimated the FF vote by 8% (McDaid by 5.6% and O'Neachtain by 2.25%) and underestimated Dana's vote by 3.5%.

Assuming the margin of error for that poll was about 5%, then most results were within that margin, with the result for McDaid slightly outside the MOE range.

Any info. on Lisbon 2 in this poll?

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God save Ireland.

Albert Ahern...AKA...CJ Reynolds...AKA...Bertie Haughey...(ah shure, amn't I all the one and what's a suitcase of money between pals)
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They asked that question two weeks ago, doubt they'd be asking it again so soon.

The transfer-argument on Ganley is exposed as a myth in this poll. He is not transfer-repellent to the people of NW, 2/3rds of whom voted no. May I add that privately, journo tells me Harkin and FF are 'very worried' about him, and the parties believe his support is 16% and growing. He's also performing spectacularly in Galway.

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Ok thanks!I just like to know if the recent dramatic increase in the sanity of the electorate i.e. FF about to get a well deserved kicking next week and the electorate showing a desire to vote yes to Lisbon, is continuing.

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God save Ireland.

Albert Ahern...AKA...CJ Reynolds...AKA...Bertie Haughey...(ah shure, amn't I all the one and what's a suitcase of money between pals)
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But that's not evidence of anything in terms of Ganley's transfer repellance or otherwise. What other evidence have you got?





"Journo" could be anyone. You haven't the foggiest who he is.

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"The elites are mostly wrong" says FutureTaoiseach. But FutureTaoiseach is also mostly wrong. Does that mean the elites are mostly right?

I've looked at the figures in the SBP, and needless to say, FT is getting over-excited. Libertas register at 4% in the European poll, and in the accompanying article, it says Ganley gets the majority of that. So, 4% of 1,000 voters is about 40 people saying they'll vote Libertas in the Euros, across the three constituencies. Let's say Simons and O'Malley are on 1% each, which is about 2.5 people in each of their constituencies saying they'll vote Libertas. That leaves 35 Libertas voters, all of whom are in North-West. Presumably 250 people were sampled in NW, so that's 35/250 being Ganley voters - which is 14%. And that is if you give Ganley the benefit of the doubt in every aspect of those figures. And we all know that at 14% Ganley is in contention, but by no means assured of a seat - and, as I said, that is by giving him the benefit of every bit of doubt about those figures. For instance, if you gives Simons and O'Malley 2% of the vote each, (which is hardly earth-shattering), Ganley is then left with just 30 of 250 voters in NW, which is 12%, and definitely no seat.

So the poll tells us nothing we don't already know - Ganley has an outside chance, but not a great chance, of a seat.

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"The elites are mostly wrong" says FutureTaoiseach. But FutureTaoiseach is also mostly wrong. Does that mean the elites are mostly right?