If there were a general election tomorrow which ministers (if any) would be defeated?

For what its worth, here is my list on those that could, potentially and maybe conceivably, lose:

Cabinet:
Batt O'Keefe
Mary Hanafin
Dermot Ahern
John Gormley
Eamonn Ryan

Junior:
Pat Carey
Peter Power
Maire Hoctor
Martin Manseragh
Barry Andrews
Mary Wallace
Sean Power
Trevor Sargent

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Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03

My slow drift to the right continues....

I'd add Martin Cullen to the list.

One can only dream....

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Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03

My slow drift to the right continues....

I'll only comment on the one - from my Constituency - Batt O'Keeffe

It's only a 3 seater with 2 FF and 1 FG at the mo. I still think there would likely be at least one FFer in there with an Election despite all the hubub of the moment. There are sufficient die hard FF supporters around Cork NW to prob ensure that. Of course it is very possible that there may only be one FFer elected next time round in Cork NW - it was that way here with 2 FGers before during times when FF had far better general support.

So it would come down to O'Keeffe and Moynihan the FFers (assuming both were standing again). O'Keeffe's part of the Constituency (Ballincollig) only recently became part of it for the first time in 2007 and obviously there is a huge population around such area.

So I'd hazard a guess in a re-election Cork NW would return one FF, one or more FG or maybe one FG and one Labour TD

I'd think the FFer would be Batt and Moynihan would lose out this time

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"I will submit that the economic and political crises that face this country will never be dealt with unless the culture and values of the political and administrative classes undergo profound change" (Emily O'Reilly, Ombudsman/Info Commissioner)

All except for Michael Martin, Willie O Dea & Dermot Ahern. I wouldn't be at all suprised if Cowen lost his seat too.

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No chance. He won't top the poll but he will get in.

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I'd agree with that
And some people seem to think that there will be a cull of FF left right and center. There won't be one of biblical proportions. One will still see a sizeable number of FFers getting re-elected if there were an Election called ... they might start limping in towards the end of the pack in Constituencies for re-election but they will still get in

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"I will submit that the economic and political crises that face this country will never be dealt with unless the culture and values of the political and administrative classes undergo profound change" (Emily O'Reilly, Ombudsman/Info Commissioner)

Barring a complete meltdown of catastrophic proportions he won't go......

But more than the token one defeated minister of every other election could go (Michael McDowell, Mary O'Rourke, Niamh Breathnach...)?

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Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03

My slow drift to the right continues....

None of them will lose a seat. You're just having a wet dream.

Ministers losing seats is all but unheard of in Irish politics. The seats that FF will lose are their second seats in various constituencies, not their primary candidates, and definitely not their Ministers.

Ryan and Gormley are running in constituencies where their primary opponents have left the stage.

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Bangladesh (Pop. 162m)
Ethiopia (Pop. 80m)
Peru (Pop.30m)


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Do not underestimate the Irish electorates ability to hoodwinked time and time again by FF's brand of codology. I've long suspected that the irish public may be suffering from some form of mass insanity, that is if you except its definition as "continually doing the same thing thing over and over again, yet expecting a different outcome"