Considering the time that the government is having at the moment with the economy, Lisbon, and all its other woes, do people feel that they will be adversely effected come June 2009? They currently hold 4 out of 13 seats so would need to get less than this for any change. Dublin is set to be reduced to 3 seats from the current 4 MEPs, meaning Ireland will have 12 MEPs in total.

I have seen rumours floating around this site that Gay Mitchell and Prionsios de Rossa could be hanging up their boots so who is going to control Dublin? Will Mary Lou's seat be put in jeopardy if a Libertas candidate runs or can Dublin host 2 anti-Lisbon campaigners? Personally, I don't think so but I could certainly be wrong. Who are the likely candidates for next year's European Elections?

Can we expect Libertas to succeed nationally and what of the independent candidates in the country? European elections have proved that the chances for an independent candidate to gain election are high. Will this trend continue?

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"In order to become the master, the politician poses as the servant." Charles de Gaulle

Economic Left/Right: -0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.46

Surely Dublin is Fiona-Fail O'Malley's for the taking, as is Connacht for Cannon? The resurrection starts here...

[quote=toxic avenger]Surely Dublin is Fiona-Fail O'Malley's for the taking, as is Connacht for Cannon? The resurrection starts here...[/quote:32lf3p3x]

I'll take it that is sarcasm

I imagine that Eoin Ryan should run again and will be likely to hold his seat. But given that it is set to be a 3 seat constituency and with sentiment the way it is would FF really hold on to their seat. Also, will Bacik run for Labour. She seems the likely successor to de Rossa. I think a 3 seat Dublin definitely will serve to mix things up a bit.

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"In order to become the master, the politician poses as the servant." Charles de Gaulle

Economic Left/Right: -0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.46

While I'm thinking about it, will Kathy Sinnott hold onto her seat after her antics or will a Libertas-type seem somewhat more sensible in their Euro-cautious approach?

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"In order to become the master, the politician poses as the servant." Charles de Gaulle

Economic Left/Right: -0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.46

Eoin Ryan should retain his seat if he runs again. I would imagine that Ivana Bacik will run again despite having been recently elected to the Seanad.
I don't know what Libertas will do yet. My gut feeling is that they will not perform particularly well but we will have to see if they can jump from single-issue politics to giving positive proposals.

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[quote=toxic avenger]Surely Dublin is Fiona-Fail O'Malley's for the taking, as is Connacht for Cannon? The resurrection starts here...[/quote:1ee868ea]

Fiona-Fail!

*snort*

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I don't think Kathy did herself any favours with who she surrounded herself with. I think it's only a matter of time before somebody takes the seat from her.

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[quote=Umar.Ahmed]I don't think Kathy did herself any favours with who she surrounded herself with. I think it's only a matter of time before somebody takes the seat from her.[/quote:2eidqzl1]

Nationally, probably not. But locally she's well liked still.

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[quote=CookieMonster]Nationally, probably not. But locally she's well liked still.[/quote:20h3btki]

She has a good base to start from locally but I think she has provided the opportunity to others to win the seat. I am very curious to see how a Libertas candidate will do in South. Unless of course, Kathy runs as the Libertas candidate!

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2004 European Elections order of election
Dublin - FG, FF, LAB, SF
East - FG, FF, FG
South - FF, FG, Ind (Sinnott)
North West - FF, Ind (Marian Harkin), FG

Think of where the Libertas candidates would feature here. I know that the majority voted against Lisbon (this is somewhat irrelevant) but party loyalty may still hold for the European elections. Dublin is reduced to 3, so if that was the case there would be no SF seat from last election. Will voters radically alter their voting patterns as a consequence of the Lisbon treaty. I don't feel they will. If you are to look at who polled last in each constituency you don't see a FF seat being challenged. Of course, it might not work like that but I think that results will be somewhat similar in terms of party representation with the 12 seats on offer.

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