Here.

SF simply do political canvasses as a means to improve constituency services rather than acting as a spring board to tailor policies.

+1, any my never is a lot stronger than Dr. Paisleys when it comes to SF

That is a simple fact and must be factored into any voting permutations.

Wonderful analysis.

You might want to check this again. SF went up by 6 and 7% in the Tralee and Listowel electoral areas and performed a lot stronger than they did in 2004. Topped the poll in the Listowel area and Listowel TC as well as taking Labour's only seat on the latter.

This about sums up your entire post.

Party constituency polls aren't done for the purpose of tailoring policies - they're done to establish where a party's strong and weak areas are, to guide campaign strategy, to establish whether support from HQ is necessary or worthwhile in order to gain or hold a seat, etc. Policy doesn't come into it.

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"The elites are mostly wrong" says FutureTaoiseach. But FutureTaoiseach is also mostly wrong. Does that mean the elites are mostly right?

It doesn't really work like that in SF. Canvassing is about meeting the voters and everyone else, trying to counter the endless bad media by being available to constituents whether they support the party or not, and putting forward the Republican view.

Very little opinion polling is done outside of canvassing.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing I don't know, but it's the way SF prioritise things.

What about focus groups? All the parties do it.

Canvassing is an informal type of polling. Sinn Fein will not make progress unless they steal votes from Labour.

... which won't be happening.
Labour is largely a party of middle class teachers, librarians and social workers. They won't be switching to SF.

If SF have anything going for them, perhaps they really are a party of the working class, or the underclass. Their best hope is to get people out who never voted before.

Although take away the whole Northern Ireland thing*, and what have you left? A party that throws left wing shapes but don't have much credibility.


*which of course you do. All parties have signed up to Belfast/St. Andrews.

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If there is a future, it will be green.