nationalise the banks now say economists

adamirer · #21 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BodyofEvidence

to go from .8 to 10.0 in 5 years would require 27% per annum compound growth each and every year. Think thats possible?

BOI went from 12c to €1 in 4 weeks. The crash was from €20 to €1 in a year.. course its possible... but its all crystal ball gazing. who knows what this gov will do, but the bank will stand and will have some value.

Craiced · #22 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BodyofEvidence

20 academic economists say this today in the IT

list of signatories :
Karl Whelan, professor of economics, dept of economics, UCD; John Cotter, associate professor of finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Don Bredin, senior lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Elaine Hutson, lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Cal Muckley, lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Shane Whelan, senior lecturer in actuarial studies, school of mathematics, UCD; Kevin O’Rourke, professor of economics, Trinity College Dublin; Frank Barry, professor of international business and development, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Pearse Colbert, professor of accounting, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Brian Lucey, associate professor of finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Patrick McCabe, senior lecturer in accounting, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Alex Sevic, lecturer in finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Constantin Gurdgiev, lecturer in finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Valerio Poti, lecturer in finance, DCU business school; Jennifer Berrill, lecturer in finance, DCU business school; Ciarán Mac an Bhaird, lecturer in finance, Fiontar, DCU; Gregory Connor, professor of finance, department of economics, finance and accounting, NUI Maynooth; Rowena Pecchenino, professor of economics, department of economics, finance and accounting, NUI Maynooth; James Deegan, professor of economics, Kemmy School of Business, Limerick; and Cormac Ó Gráda, professor of economics, UCD

Well....what would they know. Sure Brian L and Peter Bacon know better...dont they?

Exactly, what would they know? Far better let 166 gombeens in Dail Eireann select the way forward!

mollox · #23 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BodyofEvidence

20 academic economists say this today in the IT
Nationalising banks is the best option - The Irish Times - Fri, Apr 17, 2009

list of signatories :
Karl Whelan, professor of economics, dept of economics, UCD; John Cotter, associate professor of finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Don Bredin, senior lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Elaine Hutson, lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Cal Muckley, lecturer in finance, Smurfit School, UCD; Shane Whelan, senior lecturer in actuarial studies, school of mathematics, UCD; Kevin O’Rourke, professor of economics, Trinity College Dublin; Frank Barry, professor of international business and development, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Pearse Colbert, professor of accounting, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Brian Lucey, associate professor of finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Patrick McCabe, senior lecturer in accounting, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Alex Sevic, lecturer in finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Constantin Gurdgiev, lecturer in finance, school of business, Trinity College Dublin; Valerio Poti, lecturer in finance, DCU business school; Jennifer Berrill, lecturer in finance, DCU business school; Ciarán Mac an Bhaird, lecturer in finance, Fiontar, DCU; Gregory Connor, professor of finance, department of economics, finance and accounting, NUI Maynooth; Rowena Pecchenino, professor of economics, department of economics, finance and accounting, NUI Maynooth; James Deegan, professor of economics, Kemmy School of Business, Limerick; and Cormac Ó Gráda, professor of economics, UCD

Well....what would they know. Sure Brian L and Peter Bacon know better...dont they?

It's a well known fact that if all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.
I'm sure there is probably an equal number of economists out there on either side of this argument, with both groups outnumbered by the remainder who can't decide.

mollox · #24 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simbo67

Wow, what a shot across the bough of the government.

Which branch of the administration would that be?

mollox · #25 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by BodyofEvidence

to go from .8 to 10.0 in 5 years would require 27% per annum compound growth each and every year. Think thats possible?

Current share price is heavily depressed by several factors
- the fear re scale of bad debts in property sector
- the threat of nationalisation.
- irish economy is a basket case - bank shares are essentially an investment in Ireland Inc
- no-one is buying bank shares in any market

A change in any/all of these circumstances would see shares recover quite significantly, but highly unlikely to get anywhere near previous peak in the foreseeable future.

However, many existing private shareholders have been shareholders for many years, even decades (they're not typically the hot-shot day-traders who post their wisdom on here.) These long-term holders would obviously hold & wait, even if it’s for several years, in the hope of some recovery, in preference to nationalisation which would wipe them out entirely.
That shouldn’t be too hard to understand – whatever your views on the merits of NAMA, nationalisation etc..

draiocht23 · #26 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by mollox

It's a well known fact that if all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.
I'm sure there is probably an equal number of economists out there on either side of this argument, with both groups outnumbered by the remainder who can't decide.

You know what they say. There are two types of economists. Those who know nothing and those who don't know they know nothing.

Even so, nationalisation is the best option - you can trust my opinion as I'm not an economist.

mollox · #27 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by draiocht23

You know what they say. There are two types of economists. Those who know nothing and those who don't know they know nothing.

Even so, nationalisation is the best option - you can trust my opinion as I'm not an economist.

Nationalisation would be a disaster for the country. You can trust my opinion as I too am not an economist.

misterX · #28 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by mollox

These long-term holders would obviously hold & wait, even if it’s for several years, in the hope of some recovery, in preference to nationalisation which would wipe them out entirely.

On Bloomberg today - Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says
"Rather than continually buying small stakes in banks, weaker banks should be put through a receivership where the shareholders of the banks are wiped out and the bondholders become the shareholders, using taxpayer money to keep the institutions functioning", he said.

When you buy a share, you are taking a gamble(regardless of past performance). If the company fails, you lose your money. Simple.

Those banks that have failed, must be let go down.

zakalwe1 · #29 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

key sentence

Quote:

We see nationalisation as being the inevitable consequence of a required recapitalisation of the banks done on terms that are fair for the taxpayer.

i think the vultures are circling thinking they'll get obsenely rich at tax payers expense.

bormotello · #30 (**permalink**) 17th April 2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by mollox

Current share price is heavily depressed by several factors
- the fear re scale of bad debts in property sector
- the threat of nationalisation.
- irish economy is a basket case - bank shares are essentially an investment in Ireland Inc
- no-one is buying bank shares in any market

A change in any/all of these circumstances would see shares recover quite significantly, but highly unlikely to get anywhere near previous peak in the foreseeable future.

However, many existing private shareholders have been shareholders for many years, even decades (they're not typically the hot-shot day-traders who post their wisdom on here.) These long-term holders would obviously hold & wait, even if it’s for several years, in the hope of some recovery, in preference to nationalisation which would wipe them out entirely.
That shouldn’t be too hard to understand – whatever your views on the merits of NAMA, nationalisation etc..

Shareholders are responsible for all mess in banks even more then management.
Shareholders were forcing management to gamble on property market in order to get high profit and see prices of their shares increasing.
I don’t see any reasons to save shareholders.

Government should nationalise at least one bank, fire all top managers, create a new management team, make it leader on personal finances market and sell few years later.

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