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House prices down by up to 43% from the peak

This is a discussion on House prices down by up to 43% from the peak within the Economy forums, part of the Issues category on Politics.ie. According to daft.ie's 2009 in review report, asking prices in Dublin are now down by 40% from the peak in ...

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Old 7th January 2010
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Default House prices down by up to 43% from the peak

According to daft.ie's 2009 in review report, asking prices in Dublin are now down by 40% from the peak in some places, although some parts of the country (like Limerick) are still only down 25-30% on average. The report and a commentary by Alan McQuaid of Bloxham Stockbrokers is here:
2010: a turning point for Ireland's property market
Hat tip finfacts, which has a good summary here:
Irish house asking prices fell 19% in 2009

Interesting to compare Ireland with the UK, where a shortage of supply has led to prices rebounding 10% since April: RTÉ Business: 'Supply key for UK housing market'
Goes to show that the reason we're in the mess we're in is not because of interest rates and EMU, it's because of over-construction during the boom years. Without excessive oversupply, house price busts are in a sense self-correcting, because people are much less willing to sell, meaning supply falls as well as demand. In Ireland, we've too much supply, so that's not happening.

Over on his blog, the daft.ie economist predicts Dublin will level off by the end of the year:
Asking prices down up to 43%, Irish property market loses ?180bn in value
He also estimates that €180bn has been wiped off the value of Irish residential property since 2007.
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Old 7th January 2010
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The thread title is misleading - asking prices are down by those amounts. It says nothing about sale prices
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Old 7th January 2010
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half-way there

will we do it Japanese-style or just go all-out?
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Old 7th January 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gimpanzee View Post
The thread title is misleading - asking prices are down by those amounts. It says nothing about sale prices
Well, if you know of a better measure of house prices out there, let us know!
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Old 7th January 2010
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Mr. Lenihan said that prices were down 30% and he would pay the Banks a 7 billion premium, looks like that premium has just jumped to 15 billion and if they are expected to level off at the end of 2010, well then depending on where they level off that premium could rise to..... God knows.

My own prediction at the time was property would fall 60-70%, so based on those figures the premium will be 18-22 billion.

I would be very surprised if we can afford that type of recapitalisation, on top of the mortgage and personal loan defaults coming down the tracks but maybe some of the more enlightened posters in this area like dreaded estate could post their view.
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Old 7th January 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPB View Post
maybe some of the more enlightened posters in this area like dreaded estate could post their view.
I think you'll find that their views coincide with your own...

the only people pushing for saving the zombie banks\NAMA on here are FF shills such as tonic\hal\tonys
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Old 7th January 2010
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Originally Posted by Scorpio View Post
Well, if you know of a better measure of house prices out there, let us know!
No I don't. We don't know what houses are selling for. That is the problem with your thread title - it suggests that you are providing that info. When people refer to the price of houses, they mean the price that the house was bought or sold for - not the asking price. Just stick the work 'asking' in the title and it goes from being misleading to accurate.
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Old 7th January 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorpio View Post
According to daft.ie's 2009 in review report, asking prices in Dublin are now down by 40% from the peak in some places, although some parts of the country (like Limerick) are still only down 25-30% on average. The report and a commentary by Alan McQuaid of Bloxham Stockbrokers is here:
2010: a turning point for Ireland's property market
Hat tip finfacts, which has a good summary here:
Irish house asking prices fell 19% in 2009

Interesting to compare Ireland with the UK, where a shortage of supply has led to prices rebounding 10% since April: RTÉ Business: 'Supply key for UK housing market'
Goes to show that the reason we're in the mess we're in is not because of interest rates and EMU, it's because of over-construction during the boom years. Without excessive oversupply, house price busts are in a sense self-correcting, because people are much less willing to sell, meaning supply falls as well as demand. In Ireland, we've too much supply, so that's not happening.

Over on his blog, the daft.ie economist predicts Dublin will level off by the end of the year:
Asking prices down up to 43%, Irish property market loses ?180bn in value
He also estimates that €180bn has been wiped off the value of Irish residential property since 2007.
Sale prices in Dublin are down by nearer 50% from their '07 peak. This is mainly because most of the few transactions taking place are 'distressed' sales. The Banks have no money, therefore there is no money to lend, therefore you virtually have to be a cash buyer to purchase a house today or have great contacts in the golden circle which despite what has gone on still exists. Is it any wonder that we aren't getting a worthwhile enquiry into our rotten financial system. We need an election to clean the place up. Anyone who thinks otherwise are themselves DAFT!!
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Old 7th January 2010
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They have another 50% of current value to go.
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Old 7th January 2010
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Originally Posted by HarshBuzz View Post
I think you'll find that their views coincide with your own...

the only people pushing for saving the zombie banks\NAMA on here are FF shills such as tonic\hal\tonys
What that directly translates to is "the only people who disagree with me are "FF shills", whatever that is.

And how f.cking stupid is that?
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