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This is a discussion on Deflation still at 5.9% within the Economy forums, part of the Issues category on Politics.ie. Originally Posted by Fr. Hank Tree Question for economic people: can you have deflation without a shrinking economy? Can GNP ...
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Think of computers, where prices have steadily fallen even as the economies are booming. |
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Good question. Deflation is a symptom more than a force in itself. Its a bit like alcoholism as a sign of some underlining mental illness. History has shown us that deflation coincides with recessions and depressions. Japan suffered deflation in the 1990s. The last time it was this bad here was the 1930s. The US had 25% fall in prices from 1930 to 1934. Deflation can make people postpone purchases as they perceive prices falling in the future. The fall in demand forces prices down further. And becomes a vicious circle. Deflation is good for savers but bad for borrowers so for this country it is a major anchor. As an economy grows, people raise prices, interest rates increase, capital flows inwards and so on. Deflation is like a low blood pressure reading from a person who is on life support in intensive care. (apologies for the analogy, but thats how seriously bad shape this country is in) |
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My wages are down more than the rate of deflation - I'm happy I'm doing my bit. |
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We have had innovation since the first industrial revolution in the mid 1800s. The fall in prices coincides with the fall in costs and profit margins increase. The fall in prices in the area of innovation is always offset by the increase in prices of the traditional sectors as demand for them increases out of the new industries booming. A little bit of inflation is always a good sign. Deflation is historical associated with recessions and depressions. People reduce prices not out of affordibility, but out of desperation. |
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never happened so far so my answer to the question posed was correct. your example, while correct, is only for an industry and not a country. a country can increase its national income selling, say, computers which are falling in price, but it'd have to consume computers only to satisfy your scenario. and it could only increase its national income if it exported the computers. theoretical but never going to occur in a million years.
__________________ Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones. -Marcus Aurelius |
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But in real terms, it's going to grow by somewhere between 5% and 10%. Economic activity and the level of it is entirely independent of what euro symbols we put on it. I've argued with someone on here about whether the entire 1870-1890s period was a depression (as I believe) or just a long period of growth without price rises (as s/he believes), so the idea of falling prices and rising activity has a long history! |
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![]() 25% from my 2007 levels. just behind the property market (and i'm not in the property game!)
__________________ Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones. -Marcus Aurelius |
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Some initial results from it out today on where incomes are falling most: clue, not lowest paid in financial services - and the ICT sector is getting away easy! |
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The Irish Economy Blog Archive Deflation and Competitiveness Is the argument that you're referring to that we could control our own interest rates?
__________________ "She'll hold together. Hear me, baby? Hold together!" |
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