How am I promoting widespread panic? There are options available to prevent a complete rout and to preserve jobs, to a certain extent, in the construction industry. I am unsure of the overall benefits of such moves whether they would be and how practical the moves needed would be to implement.

Off the top of my head:

Higher Capital Gains tax reformed in such a way as to make it less economical for people to sell second and subsequent properties. Also done in such a way as to make the rate lessen by a % for every extra year they hold onto it.

The Department of Finance would need to get the information from the banks as to whether this would stretch people with more than one mortgage to breaking point in such numbers as to make the idea pointless.

To prevent people being routed by high interest rates then mortgage interest relief for EVERYONE (including the investors!!!) would need to be raised in line or just below the rate rises (depending on the known breaking points of a predefined %).

If the above was done God knows how much it would cost. But it would allow the construction to continue building at a reduced capacity thus deflecting heavy job losses. Thus the industry would still be generating a tax revenue for the government (albeit at a much reduced rate). The construction industry would have to reduce prices to a level where they can start selling houses again. They are able to cut prices by colossal amounts and still make a good living.

Government would also buy copious amounts of housing stock to pass on at reduced rates to the population through the guise that they are being nice and doing something about the affordability problem. Just remember its our money to begin with!


Also a BIG bit of public borrowing into civil engineering projects would help prevent the job losses as being one big hit and would delay the losses in the hope that the wider economy would be able to absorb some.



CONTRAST THE ABOVE WITH BELOW



This all leaves people who bought in the past 4 years, at least, stuck. Negative equity.
But the construction industry, though culled, would survive.

Will Bertie and the boys do it? Depends on cost and practicality. Does Cowen have a plan for this. You`d be sure he has some sort of plan for action. Or .... is it like he said on TV "boom and busts" are gone. Does he expect Europe to bail us out? Its is possible with Germany beginning to boom after all think of all the CAP subsidies we have gotten through the years all while Germany was in recession. I do think the Germans would want us learn something from our mistakes though and would let us suffer for a while before they do anything, if they do anything at all!

On the other hand to completely restore our international competitiveness, in the words of Professor Morgan Kelly "a period of high unemployment is needed".

http://news.todayfm.com/story.asp?sid=12964

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I reckon, in the event of a housing bust severely hurting the economy, people will start looking at heavy taxes on those owning property abroad. Somthing like 50% of the value of the foreign property would possibly be the figure seen to be in the national interest.

They might use that tax windfall to build excellence in the economy via high-level training, plus a good social welfare hike for those made jobless by the collapse.

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When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

How would Revenue have a clue about who owns property abroad?

Besides, I think those throwing money at overseas property have done us a favour. Most of these investors clearly have property on the brain to an irrational level, looking at the appetite to buy shoeboxes in some hole in Bulgaria that they'd never have thought of visiting other to look at their investment. Even those plumping for saner locales like Germany haven't displayed much nous. Reports from various property investment exhibitions point to herd mentality.
So my point is, had they not invested overseas, they'd just have invested more and more here in Ireland - driving the bubble up further. Equities and fixed income investments aren't on their radar screens so it's just as well that when they go nuts for property, they do it somewhere else.

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Romanes eunt domus

Tax officials usually have ways of finding these things out...

To properly answer your question I'd have to say "whatever it is the IRS do in America to find out about foreign property owned by Americans, is what the Irish could do"

Off the top of my head, I would think that paying informants in foreign property agencies to alert the tax authorities to Irish people holding property through their business would be a productive way to go.

What do our authorities do when a rep comes from a foreign state claiming that a given business is aiding a foreigner in evading his tax liability in his native land?

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When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

Latest mortgage data states that the volume of mortgages taken out in Q1 is down 19% on Q1 2006. FTB's are down 10%, those moving home are down 25%. The only growth was in those re-mortgaging which was up 5.8%.

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Seabhcan on EU Enlargement and the Lisbon Treaty: "There is no shortage of cheap labour - Turkey isn't needed."

I assume the re-mortgages are poor sods in Rochfortsbridge topping up to 120% to pay for their mortgage increases.
Flippancy aside, dire figures but the most depressing aspect is the number of people who are calling those who express fears crackpots and panic merchants.

It appears to be unpatriotic to interfere in the gouging of naive young people by our financial institutions.

Downright criminal in fact!

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Seabhcan on EU Enlargement and the Lisbon Treaty: "There is no shortage of cheap labour - Turkey isn't needed."

Very very good piece of commentary from Finfacts and should be read and be food for thought for folks from all political persuasions.

This kind of long term thinking is badly absent from economic commentary at the moment , which seems to compose entirely of debating the ups and downs of the property market



http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusiness ... 0263.shtml

Feargach

Off the top of my head, I would think that paying informants in foreign property agencies to alert the tax authorities to Irish people holding property through their business would be a productive way to go.

Thats a scary thought. I thought communism was eliminated in Eastern Europe sometime around 1990.

Informants

Jesus Christ, I thought we dealt with these kind of people during the war of Independence.