surely the government cant keep this up in the long term. the government should improve other areas (transport, road network) instead of trying to keep the construction sector going

1 o'clock news today on RTÉ: AIB predict 3.7% growth. "Slowdown" in construction will take 1% off economic growth. The reporter took it upon himself to say that there would be no crash. House prices falling in some parts of the country. Irish economy holding up well, he added.

I'm curious how they expect 3.7% growth for 2007, when 4 months in prices are completely stagnant even in the most optimistic reports. Property prices therefore have to rise by 5% over the rest of this year. How plausible is that?

And even if by some miracle they got that growth for the rest of the year, given inflation of 5%, 3.7% growth would still be a real fall in prices.

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Je suis un loo-lah

3.7% economic growth, not a 3.7% rise in house prices.

1.2Bn will only buy 3600 homes at 333k each. The major issue is vast over supply pure and simple. Our population is growing at 2.5% or 107k PA if we use the EU avergae of 2.1 persons per home then we need 51k new homes per year not 90k or 80k or even 70k. That's why we have 260k empty homes with no stories in the news about people who are squezing into homes that are too small because of a lack of accomadation.
With no growth the speculators are fleeing the market as they now pay mortgage interest at a dead loss, with them gone the true fundementals are emerging the ones that we have at least two years new housing lying empty.

If first time buyer are put pot of the market. Then the buying chain is broke. pure and simple, the developer with there greed will start the crash.

The PDs decision to promise that they will abolish Stamp Duty for first time buyers seems to be completely irresponsible.

Apart from the fact that it has stagnated the market as first time buyers hold off, surely the fact that it contradicts proposals by the 2 main parties makes it an empty promise.

Are they resigned to the fact that they are going to be in opposition and just trying to fool people into voting for them so they don't lose their seats?

Stamp Duty is a complete red herring. The housing market collapse is being caused by massive oversupply, rising interest rates and the fact that we are at the top of a grossly over-inflated asset bubble. All stamp duty will do is to temporarily inject some capital into the market and give it the famous "dead cat bounce." Post-SD reform, the specuvestors will inevitably up their prices in the hope of recouping some of their investment and this will bring us back to exactly where we are now - teethering on the brink of a full crash.

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"Peace without justice is a field sown with violence." - Eduardo Galeano.
NÍ SAOIRSE GO SAOIRSE LUCHT OIBRE

The PDs decision to promise that they will abolish Stamp Duty for first time buyers seems to be completely irresponsible. Don't all partys now back this?

Wait until carbon taxes come in for those who bought property in the commuter belt.

Housing was akin to a pymarid sheme - pity the people at the bottom.

(I don't own any property myself)

The PDs say effective immediatelly hence people waiting around. FF say they won't reform Stamp Duty (just last week I thought - although that might change as the bidding goes on over the next few weeks) and FG say they will gradually reform it.

It obviously needs to be reformed but I can see house prices jump at the bottom end of the market making it even harder for those starting out.

Anyway if the PDs are saying for the last couple months of they can abolish Stamp Duty immediately for first time buyers why didn't they?