So would you call it that the vast majority, if not everything bought in the past three years is heading for negative equity, SW? Is that with inflation factored in?

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I think prices will return to 2001 levels in real terms (after factoring in inflation), so yeah anybody who bought after 2003/4 will possibly end up in negative equity - depending on whether they put down a deposit and whether it's a repayment or IO mortgage.

Anyone who bought in 2003/4 on a 100% interest-only mortgage will definitely end up in negative equity, IMO. If you put down a deposit and have a repayment mortgage, (and are happy to live in the property for the forseeable future) you might have enough equity built up by now to scrape through. Anyone who bought in 2006 is probably already sitting on a loss....

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I have a question on this one. Can anyone convert percentage price drops into dates in the boom - for example, could you say that a 20 per cent drop would put average prices back to the level of, say January 2003 or whatever?

It would be an interesting chart to see.

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How long do you think FTBs (young families looking for a home) will have to wait before it could be considered safe to buy?
I heard 6-7 years before the market bottoms out.

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Just find a chart of price rises over the past few years - ive seen some about - if I find one ill post it up

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The average bust usually takes 4-6 years to bottom out, yes. Japan managed to keep on dropping for 14-15 years....

Page 5 of Morgan Kelly's paper has a nice table of busts in other countries. Now, he says the length of the bust is proportional to the length of the boom so ours could last 8 or 9 years. And on average, house prices give up 70% of the boom gains.

There is an argument with a certain amount of validity that the Irish house price gains up till somewhere around 1999-2001 actually were really based on actual solid fundamentals - if this is true our bust should only last 4-5 years and bring prices back to around 2003 levels in nominal terms. If it's false, well.....

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Thanks for that. That table was a help.

Some troubling times ahead for young families condemned for the short/med term to the fractious and erratic rental sector.

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Look back at the table - the higher the rise the bigger the fall - the highest growth % there is 109.
We have had 270% growth in the past 10 years. Whats the cumulative % since 2002?

If we lose the multinationals we have NO economy (the fundamentals for pre 2002) - the export sector WAS part of the fundamentals for pre 2002 growth but that sector is currently at its worst since 1981.

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But on the bright side, such a situation might finally bring sufficient political pressure to bear to get proper tenancy laws and registration/regulation of landlords in place...

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Actually, I posted this way back on one of the longer-running immigration threads. Please no-one use this to derail the thread - if you want to challenge the figures, use one of the existing immigration threads.

17% of the Irish FTB market is represented by non-nationals. 20% of that is UK (falling from 26% the previous year), . The FTB market, in turn, is only 21% of the market - a falling market itself. There are 9,000 FTB mortgages recorded in Q4 '06.

17% of the FTB market turns out to be a total of about 6120 mortgages a year - of which 40% are Asians (2448), 20% UK (1224), Africans 8% (490) and the Eastern Europeans we're being "flooded with" are negligible - less than the Africans. Call it 250 (4%), because 5% is the lowest percentage the journo mentions.

From this article, which in turn apparently draws on research by the Irish Mortgage Corporation.

It doesn't allow us to answer madura's question explicity, but if you assume that everyone not mentioned in the figures above is Old Europe, you'd get a figure of 28% of the FTB market (about 1715 mortgages). That probably represents nearly all the Old European buyers, since very few of them will be multiple buyers in Ireland.

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