I'm a builder, and the extension/renovation market is holding up well (thanks to stamp duty).

It's a point worth repeating over and over and over again, I think. The average punter is completely unaware of any property crash anywhere else, and only a few are vaguely aware of the English and Japanese crashes. Hardly anybody knows of all the other European bubbles over the last 30 years, as you rightly mentioned. Wasn't there one in Switzerland as well?

Anyway. Not one of them had falls less than 24%, IIRC. 25-35% is about the norm, with fairly spectacular busts in I think Finland and somewhere else that topped 40%. BUT - and this is the important bit - not one of them had a property boom that lasted anywhere near as long as ours, or where prices had deviated so far from trend.

We'll be lucky to get away with 40%, IMO, and probably a fairly long-drawn-out affair over 8 or 9 years before the bottom.

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Je suis un loo-lah

To my (untrained economic) eye, I would estimate that a 30% drop is probably the best that could come out of this debacle, but will more than likely be, as you posted already, somewhat higher. It's gone too far now for any remedial action to be taken, and anyway as Sidewinder among others always points out here, there is no such thing as a soft landing. We're in big with this one, no doubt. Amazing how brutally honest it was, was'nt it? Really wasn't expecting it to be as straight from the hip as it was.

Didn't you just love seeing Moore McDowell putting the boot into the government's collective magairlí at the end?

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"Peace without justice is a field sown with violence." - Eduardo Galeano.
NÍ SAOIRSE GO SAOIRSE LUCHT OIBRE

and just in case people thought that things would get better, here's what's floating around on Rueters.

ECB policymakers warn oil is inflation threat

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/16042007/325/ec ... hreat.html

significantly..

" Rising oil prices are the biggest inflationary danger in a euro zone economy enjoying favourable growth, European Central Bank policy-makers said on Monday, adding to expectations for another ECB interest rate increase."

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1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

Just as well that the 'boom is going to get boomer'!

I suppose Frank Fahey will make a killing.

If there is a silver lining to all this, the slack in construction employment that will come from the property downturn could be taken up by major new infrastructure building programmes (metro, motorways, new airport).

Thus keeping contruction employment close to current levels, while at the same time the cost of these new infrastructure projects can be controlled.

The bust will be proportional to the boom. No other property market bubble to the best of my knowledge saw falling rents, falling rental yields and 15% of the housing stock unoccupied. And in every previous bust the nations concerned had control of their interest rates, so they could lower rates to ease the pain. Keeping the Stamp Duty weapon in the silo for the time being may be wise.

Like I said, up to 60% in some areas and housing sectors.

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Won't happen. Infrastructure projects need much less manpower than residential property, and completely different skills. Also, where is the money going to come from to pay for the infrastructure projects when stamp duty dries up and income tax from all the brickies, plasterers, electricians, roofers etc. etc. disappears? Not to mention the resulting drop in indirect taxes because all those people aren't spending much any more, the rise in welfare payments for all the brickies on the dole, the loss of jobs in builder supplies merchants, architects etc.?

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Je suis un loo-lah