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Originally Posted by Hal  Irrefutably?, his 3 scenarios have mores holes in them than a string vest. His last and worst case fable, if he did it correctly, should come out at about a 16 billion loss, but instead he manages to come up with 26 billion. He confuses loan values with asset values in all 3 variations and never makes allowance for the 2.7 billion risk sharing in any one of them, despite not reaching the 54 billion value for the 2.7 billion to come into play. |
Can you elucidate on the 3 scenarios that you are drawing your string-vest analysis from Hal?
I presume the figures below are one of the scenarios to which you refer.
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Peter Matthews says
Experts agree that a Nama outcome with highest reasonable probability is 65% recoveries on performing loans and 35% recoveries on non-performing loans. That reasonably forecasts the losses on Nama loans recoveries as follows:
Purchase price of the €77bn of Nama loans: €54bn
Recoveries on performing loans (65% x €30.8bn): €20.02bn
Recoveries on non-performing loans (35% x €46.2bn): €16.17bn
Total Nama loan recoveries: €36.19bn
Total losses on Nama loan recoveries: €17.81bn
The above implies an additional write-down requirement of 23% on €77bn
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Thanks.