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Originally Posted by marmurr1916  It will pass. Full stop. Arguing about its merits and demerits here or elsewhere won't make a whit of difference.
The public mood has changed and the majority of people will vote Yes in the next referendum.
It would be an easier victory if the government fell and was replaced by a Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
However, even that's not necessary as the Yes campaign will be led by Fine Gael and Labour anyway.
Brian Crowley is still personally popular enough in Munster to be an asset to the campaign if he puts enough of an effort in.
The Yes side has learned its lesson from the last campaign and will campaign with intensity to ensure a Yes vote.
The Lisbon ratification process in Ireland is essentially a re-run of the Nice ratification process.
Unfortunately, the Yes side last June did not learn the lessons of the first Nice referendum.
This time round they will have learned and hopefully they'll remember in future referendum campaigns. |
Human beings are social animals and if people are told that Lisbon II will be voted in, before the referendum takes place and regardless of how they vote it will be voted in, they may well change their mind to vote yes to it, thus it becomes a self fulling prophecy that it will be voted in. The fact of the matter is that, there is nothing inevitable about there being a yes vote to Lisbon II. People can vote No to it and if enough people vote No to it, it will result in a No vote to Lisbon II. It would not surprise me if there is a No vote to Lisbon II, the Irish people are asked to Vote on Lisbon III but there you go, one is dealing with people who have absolute contempt for democracy.
Best and Warm Regards
Adrian Wainer