Unfortunately for you the "unconventionality" of the election was quite apparent before voting started. You knew about the large democratic registration drive, you knew how Obama had stirred the youth vote, you knew that Obama had a large ground game, you knew that Obama would win the black vote by 90%+...even if you didn't know all that, the state polls for weeks before the election said Obama would win in the region of 350-375 EV and the national polls indicated a significant lead for Obama.

That being said I enjoyed your analysis. You (and McCain) were unlucky that the economy became such a major issue when it did and it would definitely have been a lot closer if that had not happened. That being said, I still think Obama would have won it.

You couldn't have known when you made your bets that McCain would make such an awful pick for VP and would react so rashly and wrongly to the economic situation. He also gave the game away at and after the 1st debate somewhat. Obama (rightly) sensed that the American people would like to see someone who could agree with their political opponents some of the time and made a point of agreeing with McCain many times during the debate, and McCain played right into his hands by mocking that agreement in an advertisement after the debate.

Finally though, I would like to say thank you FT for keeping this thread up to date all of the time. That required some effort and I appreciate it as you often posted information which I may not have seen otherwise.

There might be a general election next year in this country and we are surely going to have a Lisbon 2. I wouldn't bet against you getting some of that cash back then.